This week’s Monday Touch Point underscored how short-term disruptions are masking deeper structural shifts in the Austin housing market. While winter weather temporarily slowed showings and contract activity, the underlying story remains clear: new listings are now trailing last year, pending activity is uneven by location, and pricing friction persists across much of the metro. Elevated price reductions, rising withdrawals, and selective buyer engagement continue to signal a market that rewards precise pricing and disciplined strategy, not optimism. Affordability and value alignment—rather than interest rates alone—remain the primary drivers of buyer follow-through.

Market Conditions Are Being Temporarily Distorted, Not Broken

This week’s Monday Touch Point took place during one of the most disruptive winter weather events Austin has seen in years, and it is important to separate short-term noise from long-term signal. Icy roads, canceled flights, and limited mobility across the region directly impacted showings, open houses, and weekly transaction activity. That disruption shows up clearly in the data, particularly in new listings and pendings for the past several days. Weather like this suppresses activity temporarily, but it does not change the underlying direction of the market.

For agents, this is a reminder to avoid overreacting to a single distorted week. The correct approach is to acknowledge the slowdown, explain it to clients, and stay focused on broader trendlines that remain intact beneath the surface.

New Listings vs Pendings: The Market’s Most Important Indicator

The New Listing to Pending Ratio remains the most reliable leading indicator we track, and this week’s update reflected the impact of the storm. New listings dropped sharply, which was expected given the conditions. At the same time, pendings also slowed due to fewer showings and delayed buyer decision-making. The weekly ratio came in below last year, but context matters.

Month-to-date data is more telling. As of January 26, new listings are trailing January 2025 by roughly eight percent. That means this January will not exceed last year’s record-high January for new listings. While that may sound negative at first glance, it is actually constructive. Lower listing volume helps slow inventory growth and improves balance, especially if pending activity rebounds as weather conditions normalize.

Inventory, Activity, and a Bifurcated Market

Active listings remain higher year-over-year, but they are not accelerating at the pace we saw in 2025. Roughly 52 percent of active listings have experienced a price reduction, which is still elevated but improving from prior peaks. Pending listings are now nearly flat year-over-year, a meaningful improvement compared to earlier in the month.

The most important takeaway is that Austin is not a single market. Some ZIP codes are sitting on eight to nine months of inventory and struggling to attract buyers even with price cuts. Others are operating below four months of inventory and seeing multiple offers within days. This bifurcation is why pricing, presentation, and marketing execution matter more than ever. Homes that are perfectly priced and professionally marketed are still selling quickly. Everything else is getting left behind.

Multifamily Vacancy Is Applying Downward Pressure

A major macro signal discussed this week was Austin’s multifamily vacancy rate, now sitting above 14 percent, ranking among the highest in the country. This oversupply is creating rent pressure across the metro and indirectly affecting the for-sale market. As rents soften, some buyers pause, and some investors reprice expectations.

This does not indicate long-term weakness in Austin. It reflects overbuilding based on population growth assumptions that did not materialize at the pace projected several years ago. Over time, lower housing costs improve affordability and make Austin more attractive to employers and relocating households.

Pricing Has Nearly Fully Corrected

One of the most significant data points right now is median sold price. January’s median is hovering near $415,000, which places the market within a few thousand dollars of its fully inflation-adjusted benchmark. In practical terms, Austin has already erased nearly all of the excess pricing created during the post-2020 surge when adjusted for inflation.

Nominal prices are down roughly 24.5 percent from peak, and inflation-adjusted prices are down more than 30 percent. That is not a mild pullback. That is a full market reset. Some submarkets are already trading at 2017–2018 pricing levels, and certain multifamily segments have rolled back even further.

What This Means Going Forward

The data suggests the majority of the correction is already behind us. Markets tend to overshoot slightly, but we are far closer to the end of this cycle than the beginning. If current conditions hold, applying long-term appreciation rates would imply a return to prior peak pricing sometime in the early 2030s, not the near term.

For agents, the message is clear. This is a market that rewards discipline, education, and honest conversations. Buyers finally have leverage. Sellers must be realistic. And professionals who understand the data will outperform those relying on outdated narratives.