Austin Real Estate Weekly Market Update – January 15, 2026

by: Dan Price, Broker at Team Price Real Estate
Austin's leading data analysis brokerage, where data drives exceptional service
Published on: Thursday, January 15, 2026 at 06:17 am

The Austin housing market is moving through January 2026 with higher inventory levels and slower sales momentum. Active listings across the Austin-Area MLS are up 13.5% year over year, while Months of Inventory has expanded to 4.49, confirming that new supply continues to outpace absorption. Average prices remain higher, with the average active list price up 5.5% and the average sold price up 4.9% from last year, largely driven by activity in higher-priced segments. At the same time, median prices tell a different story, with the median active list price down 2.0% and the median sold price down slightly year over year, indicating continued pressure in the middle of the market. Within the City of Austin, inventory is slightly lower than last year, yet Months of Inventory has still increased to 4.30, while median sold prices are down 2.5% year over year, underscoring that price discovery remains ongoing as buyers stay selective and negotiation leverage continues to shift.

Scroll down to access the full 850+ page Austin Real Estate Market Report, featuring in-depth statistics for the top 30 cities and 75 ZIP codes across the region. 

Inventory Growth and Market Balance

Active residential listings across the Austin-Area MLS totaled 12,664 this week, up from 11,158 at the same point last year, representing a 13.5 percent year-over-year increase in available supply. Compared to the prior week, inventory remains elevated and relatively stable, reinforcing that new listings are continuing to enter the market faster than homes are being absorbed through sales. Based on current sales activity, Months of Inventory has increased from 3.86 last year to 4.49 today, a 16.2 percent year-over-year rise and roughly a 1.2x expansion in supply relative to demand. Week over week, Months of Inventory has edged higher, confirming that market velocity continues to slow as buyers take more time to make decisions.

Inside the City of Austin, inventory dynamics remain more nuanced. Active listings declined modestly from 3,317 last year to 3,200 today, a 3.5 percent year-over-year decrease. However, despite fewer active listings, Months of Inventory increased from 3.84 to 4.30, a 12.0 percent rise. Compared to the prior week, inventory levels inside the city have remained fairly steady, but the increase in Months of Inventory signals slower buyer absorption rather than tightening supply. Homes are taking longer to sell, even with fewer listings available than a year ago, giving buyers more time and leverage than they had at the start of 2025.

Pricing Stability Across the MLS

Pricing across the Austin-Area MLS continues to show a clear split between average and median values. The average active list price increased from $554,708 last year to $585,264 today, a 5.5 percent year-over-year gain. Week over week, average list prices have remained relatively flat, indicating price stability rather than renewed appreciation. This strength at the average level reflects continued activity among higher-priced homes, which tend to influence averages more than medians.

In contrast, the median active list price declined from $433,745 to $425,000, down 2.0 percent year over year. Compared to last week, the median has softened slightly, reinforcing ongoing pressure in the middle of the market where most transactions occur. On the sales side, the average sold price rose from $534,010 to $560,125, a 4.9 percent year-over-year increase, while the median sold price dipped from $417,000 to $415,000, a modest 0.5 percent decline. Week-over-week movement in sold prices has been minimal, suggesting the market is moving sideways, with averages supported by higher-end closings and medians reflecting continued buyer resistance at current price levels.

Pricing Trends in the City of Austin

Within the City of Austin, pricing trends remain mixed, with softness still visible at the median level. The average active list price increased from $776,126 to $789,976, a 1.8 percent year-over-year gain, largely driven by higher-priced inventory. Week over week, average list prices have been stable, signaling that sellers at the top end are holding pricing rather than pushing higher.

The median active list price, however, increased slightly from $565,298 to $570,354, up 0.9 percent year over year. This modest gain reflects stabilization rather than renewed upward momentum. On the sales side, the average sold price rose from $741,257 to $754,096, a 1.7 percent increase, while the median sold price declined from $554,833 to $541,000, a 2.5 percent year-over-year drop. Compared to last week, median sold pricing inside the city remains soft, indicating that price discovery is still ongoing and that buyers continue to negotiate successfully on typical homes.

Negotiation and Buyer Leverage

Negotiation remains a defining feature of the Austin housing market. So far this month, 71.13 percent of all closed sales across the Austin-Area MLS sold below list price, slightly lower than last month’s 71.44 percent but still firmly elevated by historical standards. An additional 18.14 percent of homes sold at list price, up modestly from last month, while 10.72 percent sold above list price, slightly higher than both last month and January 2025. This small uptick in above-list sales reflects isolated competitive situations rather than a broad shift in market dynamics.

The average sold-to-list price ratio currently stands at 96.87 percent, essentially unchanged from last week. This stability confirms that seller concessions and negotiated pricing remain the norm. Buyers continue to have more options, more time, and meaningful leverage, while sellers must compete more aggressively on price and terms to secure a contract.

Regional and ZIP Code Variations

Market conditions continue to vary widely across Central Texas. Of the 30 cities tracked, 12 posted month-over-month price increases this week, while 16 recorded declines. Year over year, 12 cities showed price gains, while 18 experienced declines. Notably, zero cities are currently trading above their peak price levels from the past 12 months, with 29 still below, underscoring how broad-based the correction remains.

At the ZIP code level, dispersion is even more apparent. Among the 75 ZIP codes tracked, 36 recorded month-over-month price increases, while 34 declined. Year over year, 36 ZIP codes posted gains, while 39 saw prices fall. None of the tracked ZIP codes are above their recent peak prices, with 70 still below. This highlights a market that is stabilizing unevenly, with pockets of resilience alongside continued softness across much of the region.

Prices Relative to Peak Levels

When measured against prior market highs, prices across the Austin-Area MLS remain well below peak levels. The average list price is down roughly 11.1 percent from its March 2023 peak, while the median list price is down approximately 21.3 percent from its May 2022 high. The average sold price has declined about 11.6 percent from peak, and the median sold price is down roughly 21.0 percent. On a price-per-square-foot basis, both average and median sold values remain more than 23 to 26 percent below their 2022 highs.

Inside the City of Austin, peak-to-current declines remain meaningful. The average list price is down approximately 11.1 percent from its September 2025 peak, while the median list price is down about 13.5 percent from its May 2022 high. The average sold price has declined roughly 9.8 percent from peak, and the median sold price is down more than 11.6 percent. On a per-square-foot basis, values remain roughly 24 to 28 percent below peak levels, reinforcing that pricing has not fully recovered and remains sensitive to buyer affordability and demand.

Market Outlook

As of mid-January 2026, the Austin housing market is operating in a more balanced environment than it was a year ago. Inventory is higher across the Austin-Area MLS, Months of Inventory continues to trend upward, and most homes are selling below list price. Pricing remains supported at the upper end of the market, but median prices continue to show softness, particularly within the City of Austin.

For buyers, conditions remain favorable, with expanded selection, slower competition, and sustained negotiating leverage. For sellers, success increasingly depends on realistic pricing, strong presentation, and flexibility during negotiations. For investors, the current environment offers opportunities to acquire assets at values that remain meaningfully below peak levels, provided underwriting assumptions remain conservative. The Austin housing market is no longer driven by rapid appreciation, but by balance, discipline, and careful decision-making.

Austin Housing Market Questions and Answers

1. Is the Austin housing market a buyer’s market right now?

The Austin housing market is more balanced than it was a year ago, with conditions increasingly favoring buyers. Active listings across the Austin-Area MLS are up 13.5 percent year over year, and Months of Inventory has increased from 3.86 to 4.49. This means homes are taking longer to sell and buyers have more options. Negotiation data supports this shift, as 71.13 percent of homes sold below list price this month, and the average sold-to-list price ratio is 96.87 percent. While not a distressed market, buyers clearly have more leverage today than they did in early 2025.

2. Are home prices in Austin going up or down in 2026?

Price trends in Austin depend on which metric is being measured. Across the Austin-Area MLS, average prices are higher year over year, with the average active list price up 5.5 percent and the average sold price up 4.9 percent. However, median prices, which better reflect what typical buyers pay, are lower. The median active list price is down 2.0 percent, and the median sold price is down 0.5 percent year over year. Inside the City of Austin, the median sold price has declined 2.5 percent. This indicates that higher-priced homes are supporting averages, while most homes are experiencing ongoing pricing pressure.

3. How much room is there to negotiate on Austin homes right now?

Negotiation remains a major feature of the Austin housing market. So far this month, 71.13 percent of homes sold below their original list price, while only 10.72 percent sold above list price. The average sold-to-list price ratio of 96.87 percent confirms that seller concessions and price reductions are common. Compared to last month and January 2025, the share of homes selling above list remains low, showing that competitive bidding is limited to isolated situations rather than the broader market. Buyers generally have time to negotiate price and terms, especially on homes that have been on the market longer.

4. Is the City of Austin performing differently than the surrounding metro area?

Yes, the City of Austin is showing different dynamics than the broader Austin-Area MLS. While metro-wide inventory is up 13.5 percent year over year, active listings inside the city are down 3.5 percent. Despite fewer listings, Months of Inventory in the city has still increased to 4.30, meaning homes are selling more slowly. Pricing also differs. The average sold price in the city is up 1.7 percent, but the median sold price is down 2.5 percent year over year. This shows that pricing pressure is more pronounced for typical homes inside the city, even as higher-end properties support averages.

5. How far are Austin home prices from their peak levels?

Austin home prices remain well below their prior market highs. Across the Austin-Area MLS, the median list price is down about 21 percent from its May 2022 peak, and the median sold price is down roughly 21 percent from peak levels. Average sold prices are down about 11.6 percent from their highs. Inside the City of Austin, median sold prices are down more than 11.6 percent from peak, while price-per-square-foot metrics are down roughly 24 to 28 percent. This indicates that, despite recent stabilization, the market has not fully recovered from its prior peak and remains in a price correction phase rather than a rapid rebound.