Austin Real Estate Market: Analyzing the New Listing to Pending Ratio September 16, 2024 : The Austin real estate market has seen significant fluctuations throughout 2024, and one of the key indicators to track its health is the <a href="https://teamprice.com/new-listing-to-pending-ratio">New Listing to Pending Ratio</a>. This ratio provides a snapshot of market activity by comparing the number of new listings that enter the market to those that move into a pending status, representing homes that are under contract but not yet closed. As of September 16, 2024, the current New Listing to Pending Ratio sits at 0.54, reflecting an ongoing trend of more homes being listed than moving into a pending status, a pattern we've seen consistently throughout the year. <div class="se-component se-video-container __se__float-center" style="width: 100%; min-width: 100%;"><figure style="width: 100%; height: 56.25%; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Th1UBoV2UZY" width="100%" height="56.25%" style="width: 100%; height: 100%;"></iframe></figure></div>​ Year-Over-Year ComparisonA closer look at the year-over-year comparison reveals that the ratio in September 2024 (0.54) is notably lower than the ratio during the same period in 2023, which stood at 0.81. This marks a decline in the pace at which homes are going under contract compared to the number of new listings coming to the market. While the number of homes entering the market has not changed drastically, the slowing pending sales suggest either a cooling buyer demand or possibly longer negotiation periods.&nbsp;Weekly data offers further insights. For example, from September 9 to September 16, 2024, 1,003 new listings were added to the market, while only 649 properties moved to pending status. This imbalance has contributed to the declining ratio, signaling a potential shift toward a buyer's market as inventory begins to outpace demand. In comparison, the same week in 2023 showed a healthier balance, with 952 new listings and 817 pending properties.​Mortgage Rates and Market Impact<a href="https://teamprice.com/30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate">Mortgage rates</a> have played a substantial role in shaping market activity. The current average mortgage rate stands at 6.20%, up slightly from last month but down from earlier highs of over 7%. These higher borrowing costs have been a barrier for many potential buyers, suppressing demand and contributing to the growing inventory. However, as mortgage rates show signs of stabilization, we may see an uptick in pending contracts as buyers adjust to the new norm.​Price Drops Versus IncreasesAnother key factor influencing the market is the price drop to price increase ratio, which currently sits at 92%. This means that for every price increase in a listing, there are significantly more price drops, reflecting sellers' willingness to make concessions in order to attract buyers. A high percentage of price drops is often a signal that sellers are facing a more competitive environment where buyers are becoming more selective, and pricing strategies are more crucial than ever.​Market Shifts and Open House ActivityOne of the most telling signs of market sentiment is the level of open house activity. As of mid-September, there were around 3,000 open house offerings each week, indicating strong seller engagement in showcasing properties. However, despite these efforts, the shift in the New Listing to Pending Ratio suggests that buyers are either holding off on making decisions or encountering affordability challenges that prevent them from moving forward.​Residential Market PerformanceA breakdown of monthly residential data supports the narrative of a cooling market. From August to September 2024, the number of new listings dropped from 3,933 to 1,897, a steep decline of over 50%. Despite this, the number of pending properties also saw a significant reduction, from 3,500 in August to just 1,426 in September. The sharp reduction in pending contracts highlights the hesitancy among buyers, possibly due to the combination of higher interest rates and home prices.&nbsp;Additionally, the gap between new and pending listings is growing. In September 2024, there were 853 more new listings than pending properties, a stark contrast to earlier in the year when the difference was less pronounced. The growing inventory provides buyers with more options but also forces sellers to be more competitive, as reflected in the price drops across the market. What’s Next for the Austin Market?&nbsp;The Austin real estate market remains in a period of transition. With the New Listing to Pending Ratio below 1.0, it's clear that supply is outpacing demand, at least for the time being. However, with interest rates showing signs of stabilizing and sellers adjusting their pricing strategies, there is potential for the market to regain its equilibrium. If mortgage rates decrease slightly or if buyers become more accustomed to current conditions, we could see an increase in pending contracts and a tighter ratio in the months ahead. For now, the market presents opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Buyers benefit from more choices and negotiating power, while sellers who are willing to be flexible with pricing may still be able to secure deals. As always, monitoring key indicators like the New Listing to Pending Ratio will be essential for understanding market dynamics as we move into the final months of 2024.

Discover the latest insights into the Austin real estate market with a focus on the New Listing to Pending Ratio. Learn how current trends, mortgage rates, and price shifts are shaping the Austin housing landscape in 2024.

Austin Real Estate Market Update: Monday Touch Point – September 16, 2024

Austin Real Estate Market Update: Understanding Current Trends August 10, 2024 : The Austin real estate market has experienced notable fluctuations over the years, with the most recent data offering valuable insights into its current state. One of the most critical metrics used to evaluate market conditions is the <a href="https://teamprice.com/market-update">Months of Inventory (MOI)</a>, a measure that indicates how long it would take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new listings were added. The MOI is calculated by taking the average number of units sold monthly over the past year and dividing the current number of active listings by that figure. This calculation provides a snapshot of the market's current supply and demand balance. According to the latest data, the <a href="https://teamprice.com/market-update">Austin-area MOI</a> as of August 2024 stands at 5.3 months. This figure places the market squarely in the "neutral" category, which is defined by an inventory level between 5 and 6.9 months. A neutral market suggests that there is a relatively balanced number of buyers and sellers, with neither group holding a distinct advantage. Historically, the <a href="https://teamprice.com/market-update" class="on">Austin MOI</a> has seen significant variations. For example, in July 2010, the MOI peaked at 8.6 months, indicating a strong buyer's market at the time. In contrast, more recent years have witnessed much lower MOI levels, reflecting tighter market conditions. <div class="se-component se-image-container __se__float-center"><figure><img src="https://quicktours-static.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/agent_richtext/20240810011723.png" alt="austin-months-of-inventory-2024-update" data-rotate="" data-proportion="true" data-rotatex="" data-rotatey="" data-align="center" width="" height="" data-size="," data-percentage="auto,auto" data-index="0" data-file-name="austin-months-of-inventory-2024-update.png" data-file-size="218707" data-origin="," style=""></figure></div> It's important to note that the MOI is considered a lagging indicator, as it reflects the inventory based on the historical absorption of properties. This means it provides insight into past market conditions rather than predicting future trends. To get a fuller picture of the market, it is also essential to consider leading indicators like the "<a href="https://teamprice.com/new-listing-to-pending-ratio">New Listing to Pending Ratio</a>" and the <a href="https://teamprice.com/activity-index-city">Activity Index for cities</a> and the <a href="https://teamprice.com/activity-index-zip-code">Activity Index for zip codes</a>.&nbsp;<a href="https://teamprice.com/new-listing-to-pending-ratio">New Listing to Pending Ratio</a> is (AUC + PB) / (New + BOM). AUC stands for "Active Under Contract," PB stands for "Pending, Taking Backups," New stands for "New Listings," and BOM stands for "Back On Market." A ratio less than one indicates an increase in inventory and a ratio of more than one will indicate a decrease in inventory.&nbsp;​The chart below will show you both the activity index and months of inventory for all 75 zip codes in the Austin-Area. We update this chart daily and you can access an updated version by going to our <a href="https://teamprice.com/active-residential-listings" style="font-size: 18px;">Austin-Area Active Residential Listings</a> resource. The Activity Index is calculated by dividing the number of pending properties by the total number of active and pending properties (Pending / Active + Pending). This ratio shows the current level of market absorption and, when analyzed alongside the MOI, provides a powerful way to understand both leading and lagging market indicators. <div class="se-component se-image-container __se__float-center"><figure><img src="https://quicktours-static.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/agent_richtext/20240810012018.png" alt="austin-zip-code-activity-index-months-of-inventory-2024" data-rotate="" data-proportion="true" data-rotatex="" data-rotatey="" data-align="center" width="" height="" data-size="," data-percentage="auto,auto" data-index="2" data-file-name="austin-zip-code-activity-index-months-of-inventory-2024.png" data-file-size="168979" data-origin="," style=""></figure></div> This neutral stance in the market is further supported by the <a href="https://teamprice.com/active-residential-listings">number of active residential listings</a>. As of the latest update in August 2024, there are 15,690 active residential listings in the Austin area. This inventory provides a comprehensive view of the available housing supply, a critical factor influencing both pricing and market dynamics. A higher number of listings typically gives buyers more options and can lead to longer times on the market for sellers, which is consistent with the current neutral MOI. <div class="se-component se-image-container __se__float-center"><figure><img src="https://quicktours-static.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/agent_richtext/20240810011828.png" alt="active-listings-austin-august-2024" data-rotate="" data-proportion="true" data-rotatex="" data-rotatey="" data-align="center" width="" height="" data-size="," data-percentage="auto,auto" data-index="1" data-file-name="active-listings-austin-august-2024.png" data-file-size="269108" data-origin="," style=""></figure></div> To understand the implications of these figures, it is essential to look at the historical trends. The <a href="https://teamprice.com/insight-and-statistics">Austin real estate market</a> has transitioned through various phases over the past two decades. In the years following the 2008 financial crisis, the MOI reached its highest levels, signifying a period when buyers had a strong upper hand due to the abundance of available properties. As the market recovered, the MOI gradually declined, moving through a seller's market phase, where homes were in high demand and inventory was scarce. The current neutral market indicates a period of stability, where supply and demand are more evenly matched. The data-driven insights provided by the MOI and active listings offer a detailed snapshot of the current Austin real estate market. Understanding these metrics, along with leading indicators like the <a href="https://teamprice.com/new-listing-to-pending-ratio">New Listing to Pending Ratio</a> and the Activity Index, is crucial for both buyers and sellers as they navigate the complexities of real estate transactions. For sellers, knowing that the market is neutral might influence their pricing strategies and expectations regarding how long their home will stay on the market. For buyers, the current MOI suggests that while there are options available, they should be prepared for a market that does not overwhelmingly favor them. As the <a href="https://teamprice.com/insight-and-statistics">Austin real estate market</a> continues to evolve, keeping a close eye on these indicators will be essential for making informed decisions. Whether you are buying or selling, understanding the dynamics of the market can help you navigate the process more effectively and with greater confidence.

August 10, 2024 : Explore the latest trends in the Austin real estate market with our August 2024 update. Learn about current inventory levels, Months of Inventory (MOI), and how leading indicators like the Activity Index and New Listing to Pending Ratio provide a comprehensive market analysis. Stay informed with our detailed market insights.

Austin Real Estate Market Trends: August 2024 Inventory Update and Analysis

Understanding the Real Estate Market: New Listing to Pending Ratio and Active Listings July 13, 2024 : The real estate market is a dynamic and ever-changing environment that can be challenging to navigate. One way to gain insights into the market's health is by examining the <a href="https://teamprice.com/new-listing-to-pending-ratio">New Listing to Pending Ratio</a> and the number of active listings. This ratio, created by Team Price Real Estate, compares the number of new listings (including those that come back on the market) to the number of pending sales (active under contract and pending). It serves as a valuable tool for understanding whether the market is in equilibrium, favoring buyers, or favoring sellers. A ratio of 1.00 indicates a balanced market where the number of new listings equals the number of properties being sold. For example, if 1,000 new listings come onto the market and 1,000 are absorbed, the ratio is 1.00. If the ratio falls below 1.00, it means fewer homes are being sold than are listed, leading to an increase in inventory. Conversely, a ratio above 1.00 indicates a higher rate of sales compared to new listings, resulting in a decrease in active inventory. The data provided from 2005 to 2024 highlights various market conditions. In 2007, the <a href="https://teamprice.com/new-listing-to-pending-ratio">New Listing to Pending Ratio</a> reached its peak at 1.26 in April and May, showing a super-hot market where homes were selling faster than new ones were being listed. In contrast, 2001 experienced the lowest ratio at 0.45 in September, indicating a cold market with rapidly increasing inventory. <div class="se-component se-image-container __se__float-center"><figure><img src="https://quicktours-static.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/agent_richtext/20240713052603.png" alt="" data-rotate="" data-proportion="true" data-align="center" data-size="," data-percentage="auto,auto" data-file-name="new listing to pending ratio.png" data-file-size="393707" data-origin="," style=""></figure></div> Examining the number of active listings alongside the ratio offers additional insights. For instance, in 2008, the market faced significant challenges due to the financial crisis. Despite having a high number of active listings, with a peak of 13,384 in June, the New Listing to Pending Ratio dropped to 0.50 in October. This indicates that the market was struggling to absorb the available inventory, leading to a buildup of unsold homes. <div class="se-component se-image-container __se__float-center"><figure><img src="https://quicktours-static.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/agent_richtext/20240713052734.png" alt="" data-rotate="" data-proportion="true" data-align="center" data-size="," data-percentage="auto,auto" data-file-name="active listings.png" data-file-size="117731" data-origin="," style=""></figure></div> In recent years, the data reflects the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the real estate market. In 2021, the number of active listings in January was the lowest in the dataset at 2,842, and February was similar at 2,703. During this time, the New Listing to Pending Ratio remained above 1.00 for most of the year, reflecting a strong demand for homes driven by low-interest rates and changing housing preferences. By 2022, the market began to cool down, with the ratio dropping as low as 0.58 in June, indicating increasing inventory levels as market conditions stabilized. Seasonal trends are also evident in the data. Generally, the number of active listings tends to rise during the spring and summer months, peaking around June or July, and then decreases towards the end of the year. The New Listing to Pending Ratio often mirrors this seasonality, with higher values in the spring and summer when market activity is typically at its highest. Long-term trends indicate a gradual shift towards a seller's market. From 2011 to 2021, the ratios generally increased, while the number of active listings decreased. This trend is particularly noticeable in 2021, with the sharp drop in active listings and consistently high ratios, signifying strong market absorption and high demand. <div class="se-component se-image-container __se__float-center"><figure><img src="https://quicktours-static.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/agent_richtext/20240713052943.png" alt="" data-rotate="" data-proportion="true" data-align="center" data-size="," data-percentage="auto,auto" data-file-name="moi.png" data-file-size="222916" data-origin="," style=""></figure></div> July 2024: Recent Trends and Forecasts :&nbsp;As of July 2024, the real estate market is experiencing significant changes due to a recent increase in interest rates. The Federal Reserve's benchmark rate has been stable at 5.33% since the beginning of the year. <a href="https://teamprice.com/30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate">Mortgage rates</a> have also seen fluctuations, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging around 6.89% in early July 2024. These higher interest rates have impacted affordability, making it more challenging for potential buyers to enter the market. <div class="se-component se-image-container __se__float-center"><figure><img src="https://quicktours-static.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/agent_richtext/20240713052838.png" alt="" data-rotate="" data-proportion="true" data-align="center" data-size="," data-percentage="auto,auto" data-file-name="rates.png" data-file-size="103661" data-origin="," style=""></figure></div> Despite the increase in interest rates, more listings are entering the market. This influx is partly due to sellers trying to capitalize on the still relatively high property values before potential further rate hikes. The <a href="https://teamprice.com/active-residential-listings">number of active listings</a> in July 2024 is 15,682, a significant increase from the same month in previous years. The New Listing to Pending Ratio for July is 0.54, indicating that while more properties are coming onto the market, the absorption rate is slightly lagging, leading to a modest buildup in inventory. Forecasts :&nbsp;Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain somewhat volatile. The <a href="https://teamprice.com/30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate">higher interest rates</a> are likely to continue impacting affordability, potentially dampening buyer demand. However, if rates stabilize or decrease slightly towards the end of the year, as some forecasts suggest, we might see a rebound in buyer activity. The <a href="https://teamprice.com/new-listing-to-pending-ratio">New Listing to Pending Ratio</a> is expected to hover around the current levels, with minor fluctuations reflecting the seasonal trends and economic conditions. Overall, understanding the New Listing to Pending Ratio and active listings data can help real estate professionals, buyers, sellers, and investors make informed decisions. This ratio serves as a real-time indicator of market conditions, reflecting periods of equilibrium, overheated markets, and slowdowns. By analyzing these trends, stakeholders can anticipate market changes, strategically plan their actions, and navigate the complex real estate landscape more effectively.​

July 13, 2024 : Discover how the New Listing to Pending Ratio and active listings data reveal real estate market trends. Learn how this key metric can help you understand market conditions, anticipate changes, and make informed decisions in the real estate industry

Understanding the Real Estate Market with New Listing to Pending Ratio

Understanding the New Listing to Pending Ratio: 2022-2024 Trends June 19, 2024 : The <a href="https://teamprice.com/agent/articles/140923/Understanding the New Listing to Pending Ratio: 2022-2024 Trends">New Listing to Pending Ratio</a> is a crucial metric in the real estate market, indicating the balance between new listings and properties that go under contract. This ratio helps us understand whether the market is in equilibrium, absorbing new listings at the same rate they are introduced, or if there is a discrepancy causing changes in inventory levels. In 2022, the real estate market saw significant fluctuations in this ratio. January started strong with a ratio of 1.32, indicating a higher absorption rate where more properties went under contract than were newly listed. This trend continued through the first quarter, with February at 1.15 and March at 1.02, maintaining a relatively balanced market. However, as we moved into the second quarter, the ratio dropped to 0.90 in April and further to 0.83 in May, suggesting a slight increase in inventory. June saw a sharper decline to 0.58, indicating a substantial increase in inventory levels as fewer properties went under contract relative to new listings. The market attempted a recovery in July with a ratio of 0.63, followed by a modest increase to 0.76 in August. The last quarter of the year saw a mix of slight improvements and stability, with ratios of 0.66 in September, 0.71 in October, 0.85 in November, and a strong finish at 1.03 in December. <div class="se-component se-image-container __se__float-center"><figure><img src="https://quicktours-static.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/agent_richtext/20240619074011.png" alt="" data-rotate="" data-proportion="true" data-align="center" data-size="," data-percentage="auto,auto" data-file-name="ratio.png" data-file-size="62749" data-origin="," style=""></figure></div> Moving into 2023, the market dynamics shifted. January began with a lower ratio of 0.88, already showing signs of increased inventory compared to the previous year. February saw a slight improvement to 0.95, almost reaching equilibrium, but March dropped to 0.79, indicating a growing inventory. April's ratio of 0.91 suggested a temporary balance, but May and June continued the trend of increased inventory with ratios of 0.81 and 0.77, respectively. July saw an improvement to 0.83, maintaining a more balanced market. August through October showed a consistent pattern with ratios of 0.74, 0.71, and 0.77, respectively. November’s ratio of 0.82 indicated a stable market as the year drew to a close, while December saw a significant increase to 1.08, marking a higher absorption rate than new listings. In 2024, the market showed continued trends of fluctuating ratios. January started with a ratio of 0.89, similar to the previous year, followed by a slight decrease to 0.81 in February. March saw a further drop to 0.76, indicating a rising inventory. April's ratio of 0.71 and May’s 0.66 continued this trend, with June maintaining the same ratio of 0.66. These numbers highlight an ongoing increase in inventory as the market absorbs fewer properties compared to new listings. <div class="se-component se-image-container __se__float-center"><figure><img src="https://quicktours-static.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/agent_richtext/20240619074024.png" alt="" data-rotate="" data-proportion="true" data-align="center" data-size="," data-percentage="auto,auto" data-file-name="ratio 2000.png" data-file-size="393437" data-origin="," style=""></figure></div> Understanding these monthly trends in the <a href="https://teamprice.com/new-listing-to-pending-ratio">New Listing to Pending Ratio</a> provides valuable insights into the real estate market’s behavior. The data from 2022 to 2024 reveals periods of market equilibrium, fluctuations, and trends in inventory changes, crucial for making informed decisions in real estate transactions.&nbsp;This article is based on data published on June 19, 2024. <a href="https://teamprice.com/insight-and-statistics">Austin Real estate statistics</a> are constantly evolving. For the most current data and analysis, please refer to the following resources, updated weekly: <a href="https://teamprice.com/new-listing-to-pending-ratio">Austin New Listing to Pending Ratio</a>

June 19, 2024 : Explore the detailed monthly trends in the New Listing to Pending Ratio from 2022 to 2024. Understand how the balance between new listings and pending sales impacts real estate market inventory and equilibrium.

Understanding the New Listing to Pending Ratio: 2022-2024 Trends

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