Understanding the Real Estate Market: New Listing to Pending Ratio and Active Listings

July 13, 2024 : The real estate market is a dynamic and ever-changing environment that can be challenging to navigate. One way to gain insights into the market's health is by examining the New Listing to Pending Ratio and the number of active listings. This ratio, created by Team Price Real Estate, compares the number of new listings (including those that come back on the market) to the number of pending sales (active under contract and pending). It serves as a valuable tool for understanding whether the market is in equilibrium, favoring buyers, or favoring sellers.

A ratio of 1.00 indicates a balanced market where the number of new listings equals the number of properties being sold. For example, if 1,000 new listings come onto the market and 1,000 are absorbed, the ratio is 1.00. If the ratio falls below 1.00, it means fewer homes are being sold than are listed, leading to an increase in inventory. Conversely, a ratio above 1.00 indicates a higher rate of sales compared to new listings, resulting in a decrease in active inventory.

The data provided from 2005 to 2024 highlights various market conditions. In 2007, the New Listing to Pending Ratio reached its peak at 1.26 in April and May, showing a super-hot market where homes were selling faster than new ones were being listed. In contrast, 2001 experienced the lowest ratio at 0.45 in September, indicating a cold market with rapidly increasing inventory.

Examining the number of active listings alongside the ratio offers additional insights. For instance, in 2008, the market faced significant challenges due to the financial crisis. Despite having a high number of active listings, with a peak of 13,384 in June, the New Listing to Pending Ratio dropped to 0.50 in October. This indicates that the market was struggling to absorb the available inventory, leading to a buildup of unsold homes.

In recent years, the data reflects the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the real estate market. In 2021, the number of active listings in January was the lowest in the dataset at 2,842, and February was similar at 2,703. During this time, the New Listing to Pending Ratio remained above 1.00 for most of the year, reflecting a strong demand for homes driven by low-interest rates and changing housing preferences. By 2022, the market began to cool down, with the ratio dropping as low as 0.58 in June, indicating increasing inventory levels as market conditions stabilized.

Seasonal trends are also evident in the data. Generally, the number of active listings tends to rise during the spring and summer months, peaking around June or July, and then decreases towards the end of the year. The New Listing to Pending Ratio often mirrors this seasonality, with higher values in the spring and summer when market activity is typically at its highest.

Long-term trends indicate a gradual shift towards a seller's market. From 2011 to 2021, the ratios generally increased, while the number of active listings decreased. This trend is particularly noticeable in 2021, with the sharp drop in active listings and consistently high ratios, signifying strong market absorption and high demand.

July 2024: Recent Trends and Forecasts : As of July 2024, the real estate market is experiencing significant changes due to a recent increase in interest rates. The Federal Reserve's benchmark rate has been stable at 5.33% since the beginning of the year. Mortgage rates have also seen fluctuations, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging around 6.89% in early July 2024. These higher interest rates have impacted affordability, making it more challenging for potential buyers to enter the market.

Despite the increase in interest rates, more listings are entering the market. This influx is partly due to sellers trying to capitalize on the still relatively high property values before potential further rate hikes. The number of active listings in July 2024 is 15,682, a significant increase from the same month in previous years. The New Listing to Pending Ratio for July is 0.54, indicating that while more properties are coming onto the market, the absorption rate is slightly lagging, leading to a modest buildup in inventory.

Forecasts : Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain somewhat volatile. The higher interest rates are likely to continue impacting affordability, potentially dampening buyer demand. However, if rates stabilize or decrease slightly towards the end of the year, as some forecasts suggest, we might see a rebound in buyer activity. The New Listing to Pending Ratio is expected to hover around the current levels, with minor fluctuations reflecting the seasonal trends and economic conditions. Overall, understanding the New Listing to Pending Ratio and active listings data can help real estate professionals, buyers, sellers, and investors make informed decisions. This ratio serves as a real-time indicator of market conditions, reflecting periods of equilibrium, overheated markets, and slowdowns. By analyzing these trends, stakeholders can anticipate market changes, strategically plan their actions, and navigate the complex real estate landscape more effectively.​