Understanding the New Listing to Pending Ratio: 2022-2024 Trends

June 19, 2024 : The New Listing to Pending Ratio is a crucial metric in the real estate market, indicating the balance between new listings and properties that go under contract. This ratio helps us understand whether the market is in equilibrium, absorbing new listings at the same rate they are introduced, or if there is a discrepancy causing changes in inventory levels.

In 2022, the real estate market saw significant fluctuations in this ratio. January started strong with a ratio of 1.32, indicating a higher absorption rate where more properties went under contract than were newly listed. This trend continued through the first quarter, with February at 1.15 and March at 1.02, maintaining a relatively balanced market. However, as we moved into the second quarter, the ratio dropped to 0.90 in April and further to 0.83 in May, suggesting a slight increase in inventory. June saw a sharper decline to 0.58, indicating a substantial increase in inventory levels as fewer properties went under contract relative to new listings. The market attempted a recovery in July with a ratio of 0.63, followed by a modest increase to 0.76 in August. The last quarter of the year saw a mix of slight improvements and stability, with ratios of 0.66 in September, 0.71 in October, 0.85 in November, and a strong finish at 1.03 in December.

Moving into 2023, the market dynamics shifted. January began with a lower ratio of 0.88, already showing signs of increased inventory compared to the previous year. February saw a slight improvement to 0.95, almost reaching equilibrium, but March dropped to 0.79, indicating a growing inventory. April's ratio of 0.91 suggested a temporary balance, but May and June continued the trend of increased inventory with ratios of 0.81 and 0.77, respectively. July saw an improvement to 0.83, maintaining a more balanced market. August through October showed a consistent pattern with ratios of 0.74, 0.71, and 0.77, respectively. November’s ratio of 0.82 indicated a stable market as the year drew to a close, while December saw a significant increase to 1.08, marking a higher absorption rate than new listings.

In 2024, the market showed continued trends of fluctuating ratios. January started with a ratio of 0.89, similar to the previous year, followed by a slight decrease to 0.81 in February. March saw a further drop to 0.76, indicating a rising inventory. April's ratio of 0.71 and May’s 0.66 continued this trend, with June maintaining the same ratio of 0.66. These numbers highlight an ongoing increase in inventory as the market absorbs fewer properties compared to new listings.

Understanding these monthly trends in the New Listing to Pending Ratio provides valuable insights into the real estate market’s behavior. The data from 2022 to 2024 reveals periods of market equilibrium, fluctuations, and trends in inventory changes, crucial for making informed decisions in real estate transactions. This article is based on data published on June 19, 2024. Austin Real estate statistics are constantly evolving. For the most current data and analysis, please refer to the following resources, updated weekly: Austin New Listing to Pending Ratio