MBA Purchase Index for September 2024: Key Insights into U.S. Housing Trends

Mortgage Activity up 11.4% Week over Week 

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Purchase Index for September 25, 2024, came in at 148.2, marking a significant development in the U.S. housing market. This weekly report, which captures mortgage loan applications for purchasing homes, represents approximately 75% of U.S. mortgage activity. As a key leading indicator, the MBA Purchase Index provides insights into the demand for home purchases across the country and serves as a reflection of broader economic conditions.

Over the past several years, the MBA Purchase Index has experienced a notable decline from its historical highs. For instance, in July 2005, the index reached 497.80, a stark contrast to today's figures. The Purchase Index saw similarly strong numbers in early 2021, with a peak of 348.20 in January of that year. However, as the market evolved, the index consistently dropped through 2022 and 2023, reaching 160.20 in January 2023 and 142.30 by September 2024.

The data reflects the continuing challenges in the housing market, driven by various factors, including rising mortgage rates and fluctuating demand. The significant drop from early 2021 to September 2024 suggests a shift in market dynamics, particularly as housing affordability becomes a pressing issue for many buyers. Despite these lower figures, the index provides valuable insight into the current state of the market. Historically, the MBA Purchase Index has fluctuated with major economic events, and the current trend suggests that buyers are either being priced out of the market or are waiting for more favorable conditions.

A detailed examination of the index over the years reveals various market cycles. For example, between 2000 and 2005, the MBA Purchase Index steadily climbed, reflecting the housing boom of that era. By 2006, however, the index began to decline, coinciding with the prelude to the 2008 financial crisis. In January 2008, the index was at 412.45, but by the end of that year, it had fallen sharply to 288.90. The aftermath of the financial crisis saw the index stabilize somewhat, fluctuating between 200 and 300 for much of the following decade.

In more recent years, the Purchase Index continued to serve as a vital tool for assessing buyer activity. From 2019 to 2021, the index hovered between 250 and 350, with fluctuations corresponding to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic recovery efforts. For example, in July 2020, during the height of the pandemic, the index reached 325.20, as lower mortgage rates spurred increased home-buying activity. However, as the market stabilized post-pandemic, the index returned to more typical levels, eventually settling around 148.2 in September 2024.

It's essential to note the cyclical nature of the housing market, as reflected in the MBA Purchase Index. The index captures the ebb and flow of buyer demand, influenced by external economic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and employment trends. While today's lower numbers may seem concerning compared to the highs of previous years, they also indicate a market that is adjusting to new economic realities.

With 148.2 as the latest reading, it's clear that the housing market is still in a state of flux. However, as past trends have shown, the market is resilient, and the Purchase Index will continue to be a valuable measure of buyer intent and overall market health.​