Leading Indicators Continue to Outperform Last Year

Going into week eighteen of the year, the Austin market is still doing exactly what we have been tracking for two months running. Pending listings are up 6.0% year over year through the end of April, with 5,125 pending versus 4,837 at the same point last year. Cumulative new listings are down 2.0% year over year, sitting at 18,724. Active inventory is 16,234, down half a percent from where we were a year ago. The new listing-to-pending ratio for April closed at 0.68, beating last April's 0.65, and the year-to-date ratio is 0.74, matching exactly where we ended all of 2025.

The new listing-to-pending ratio is the cleanest leading indicator we track. It compares everything coming onto the market against everything being absorbed. A reading of 1.0 means supply and demand are equal, anything below means inventory is building, and anything above means inventory is shrinking. Tracking it weekly tells us where the market is heading before the closed-sale data confirms it. We are now ten weeks in a row outperforming last year on this ratio, with week eighteen on track to make eleven.

Demand Has Peaked for the Spring

The activity index for cities tells a more cautious story this morning. We had three cities in the green on Friday, and today we are down to one. That is the early signal of seasonal pullback. Closed sales historically peak between June and July, but the demand side, the activity side, peaks in late April through the first week of May, and we are right at that mark now. The 36-month median price comparison is currently down 5.38%, and the median sold price is $440,000, which is 20% below the May 2022 peak of $550,000.

Roughly 93% of all price changes logged in the past week were price decreases. That is the highest reading since the third week of October, when it hit 94%. Some sellers came into April too aggressive on price and are now playing catch-up. The message to anyone with a listing that has not moved is direct: get ahead of the price drop, do not chase the market down. Buyers are still out there, but they are picky and they know they have leverage.

Where the Demand Is Concentrated

The bottom 25th percentile of the market, properties priced at $324,998 and below, is doing the heavy lifting. The activity index in that band is sitting in the high twenties to nearly 30%. As you move past $650,000, the activity index drops to 23%, and above $700,000 it plummets. By the time you get past $1.4 million, every single price band has more than ten months of inventory. Sellers in those upper bands are holding firm on price, with days on market in the seventies, but the demand is simply not there at those numbers.

Five cities are up year over year on median sold price: Bastrop, Burnet, Lago Vista, Smithville, and Wimberley. Wimberley just hit an all-time high. Compare that with Marble Falls, down 39.7% from peak, or Buda, flat year over year and 24% below peak. The City of Austin median is $550,000, down 4.2% year over year and 9.8% from peak, but at the city's compound appreciation rate of 4.9%, peak recovery is only about 24 months out.

Months of Inventory and Market Type

Months of inventory for the metro is 5.71, down 2.2% year over year from 5.84. More than half of the cities we track now have lower months of inventory than they did one year ago. The City of Austin alone is down 16.9% year over year on months of inventory and only 10% above where it was two years ago. That is a meaningful tightening. The metro now sits at 2.8 sellers per buyer, putting the overall classification at balanced. Zero cities are hot, five are warm, sixteen are balanced, eight are cool, and one, Smithville, is cold. On the zip code side, three are hot: 78737, 78739, and 78749.

Market Flow Score and Rate Environment

The Market Flow Score, our composite measure of market momentum, came in at 4.32 for April versus 3.84 last April. That is three months in a row beating last year. We are looking for four consecutive months as the historical recovery signal, and next month we need to clear 4.70 to confirm it. Absorption rate at 19.63% also outperformed last year for the second month in a row. Closed sales for April hit 2,737, up 3.6% year over year, and year-to-date sold is up 2.5%. Sold per 1,000 realtors is up 8.6%, the strongest first-quarter-plus reading we have seen in four years.

Rates climbed back to 6.625% this morning. The bond market is up 4.7 basis points and adjusting to last week's hotter-than-expected inflation print. That matters for buyer urgency conversations and for any seller still believing they have pricing power they no longer have. Inventory is shrinking, demand is outperforming last year, but the rate environment is reminding everyone that the cost of waiting is real. The story is constructive, but the execution still has to be sharp.

Closing Paragraph + Action Checklist

The leading indicators are constructive. Pending up 6%, months of inventory down 2.2%, absorption rate beating last year for the second straight month, and the Market Flow Score on the doorstep of formal recovery confirmation. At the same time, demand has peaked for the spring, 93% of recent price changes were drops, and rates are climbing. This is the moment where good agents separate themselves. The market is rewarding precision: precise pricing, precise positioning, and precise communication with clients about why the cost of waiting is real on both sides of the transaction. Show up this week with sharper data than your competition.

Action Checklist

• Pull current pending and absorption data for every active listing's specific zip code before your next seller meeting
• Identify any listing in your inventory that has been on market more than 21 days and run a same-day price strategy review
• Walk every buyer client through the bottom 25th percentile activity data so they understand where competition still exists
• Send a rate update to every buyer in your pipeline today, with the specific monthly payment impact of the move from 6.5% to 6.625%
• Review the five cities up year over year and the three hot zip codes for any client matches in those markets
• Lock in your Wednesday 10 AM Zoom and Friday meeting attendance to stay on top of weekly data shifts