Leading Indicators Keep Outperforming Last Year

The new listing-to-pending ratio is the single best leading indicator for the Austin metro market. It compares everything new on the market each week against everything absorbed by the market through pending status. A reading of 1.0 means perfect equilibrium where inventory is flat. Below 1.0 means inventory is building. Above 1.0 means inventory is falling. Last week's same comparison point against 2025 was 0.73 versus 0.71, and once delayed pendings finish reporting that flips green. That marks nine consecutive weeks of beating last year on the leading indicator, which is the most important data point on this page. Leading indicators move first. Lagging indicators like sold price catch up later.

What the Briefing Confirms

The Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing for today shows active listings at 16,264, up 1.1% year over year, and pending listings at 5,166, up 4.8% year over year. The pending number is the one to focus on. Pendings are now beating not only 2025 but 2024 as well, which means the metro is outperforming the past two years on contract velocity. The Activity Index sits at 24.1%, up 2.8% over last year, with new construction running a healthy 32.25% and resale at 21.18%. Months of inventory is at 5.71 versus 5.77 last year, with the metro firmly under the six-month threshold.

Average Sold Price Quietly Turned Positive Year Over Year

This is the line item that does not get enough attention. The April average sold price is $585,701, up 0.5% year over year, the first positive year-over-year average reading we have seen in this cycle. The shift came from the top of the market. The top 25th percentile is now selling at essentially the same price as last year while the bottom 25th percentile is down 2.9%. The median sold price is $440,000, still down 1.2% year over year and 20% below the May 2022 peak, but seven cities are now up year over year on median sold price versus six on Friday. The direction is clear even if the lagging indicators still need time to catch up.

A Soft New Listing Number Worth Watching

New listings came in at 1,215 this week, down 13.4% from the same week last year, the lowest weekly count we have seen in some time. Part of that may be last week's rain delaying photos and final listing prep, and a bump is likely next week as the weather cooperates. Sellers are also clearly paying attention to days on market and pulling listings rather than rushing to market underprepared. Back on the market activity is running at 16% of new listings versus 13% last year, which counterintuitively points to a healthier market because it reflects buyers and sellers working through normal contract issues rather than financing failure. With rates stable, that pattern is constructive.

Sellers Are Correcting and That Is Healthy

A meaningful share of listings continue to require price adjustments after coming on the market, which is the buyer telling sellers what the market actually supports. April is running at 89% on the share of price-active listings that adjusted downward, an improvement on last April's 92%. Listing agents and sellers should take this as a discipline check. Buyers are still value purchasers. They know the market and they know what their dollar buys. Pricing to today's comps from the last 30 to 60 days is the difference between a quick contract and a 60-day repricing exercise.

Hyperlocal Continues to Diverge

Cedar Park leads the metro with the lowest months of inventory at 2.90, followed by Pflugerville and Round Rock. The 78749 zip code is the standout, with over half of all listings that could be under contract actually under contract and only 1.60 months of inventory. On the other end, the 78705 zip code, West Campus, is sitting at 25.25 months of inventory. That is buyer-control territory. With that kind of supply imbalance, a meaningful price correction in that zip code over the next six months is realistic, and investors who understand that tenant pool will eventually have opportunities there. The macro tells one story. The zip code tells another. Both matter.

Affordability and the Recovery Call

Using the median sold price-to-income ratio, this is the most affordable April in Austin since 2020. Add in builder buydowns at 3.99% to 4.125% and the demand picture for new construction makes sense. Absorption rate is at 14.7% with five more days of sold data still pending publication, which means the final April figure will outperform last April. The Market Flow Score is at 2.79 versus 3.84 last April. The score combines four turnover metrics into a single index from zero to ten, where higher means faster turnover and stronger demand. Four consecutive months of beating the prior year confirms recovery, and this is on track to mark the third. The market is in the recovery phase of the cycle.

The Rate Week Ahead

This week is loaded for the bond market. Tuesday brings the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index and consumer confidence. Wednesday brings building permits, housing starts, and the Fed rate decision, where the press conference will matter more than the rate itself because no rate change is expected. Thursday is the inflation day with PCE, GDP for Q1, jobless claims, and mortgage rate data. Friday closes with manufacturing data. Wednesday and Thursday will set the tone for rates into May. Clients sitting on the fence should understand that this week could move the needle either way, and that conversation is worth having now, not after the data prints.

The headline this week is that the leading indicators have been outperforming last year for nine straight weeks, the average sold price has quietly turned positive year over year for the first time in this cycle, and pendings are up 4.8% year over year against the past two years. That is what recovery looks like before the lagging indicators catch up. The agents who win this market are the ones who can hold the macro confidence and the hyperlocal discipline in the same conversation. Recovery is real. So is the buyer's eye on price. Lead with both.

Action checklist for the week:

• Pull updated comps for any active listing priced more than 60 days ago and bring a price strategy conversation to that seller before Wednesday
• Identify clients sitting on the fence and reach out before the Fed press conference Wednesday with a clear "here is what could move rates this week" message
• For Cedar Park, Pflugerville, Round Rock, and 78749 sellers, prepare data-backed positioning that supports top-of-range pricing without overshooting
• For West Campus and any high-inventory zip code, set realistic seller expectations now rather than after a 30-day price drop
• Update buyer clients on the most-affordable-April-in-six-years data point, especially those who paused last year on affordability concerns
• Monitor PCE on Thursday and have a follow-up message ready for rate-sensitive clients by Friday morning