Austin Housing Inventory Drops to 16,234 Active Listings

Austin Housing Inventory Drops to 16,234 Active Listings
May 2026 Market Update

Austin Real Estate Market Update May 01, 2026 | Daily Briefing

Austin housing inventory has finally stopped climbing, and that quiet shift may be the most important storyline in the austin real estate forecast heading into May.

For the first time in nearly a year, the active residential listing count in the austin metro is sitting below where it stood twelve months ago. As of Monday, May 4, 2026, there are 16,234 homes for sale across the region, compared to 16,320 on the same day in 2025. That is a year over year decline of 0.53 percent. It sounds small, and on its own it is small, but the direction matters. Inventory has been climbing year over year for most of the recovery period since the 2022 correction began. A flat reading is the first signal that the supply side of the equation is no longer expanding faster than demand can absorb it.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for May 04, 2026.

To put the current number in historical context, active listings peaked at 18,146 on June 30, 2025. Today's count of 16,234 is 1,912 units below that high water mark, a drop of more than 10 percent from the peak in less than eleven months. That is a meaningful drawdown, and it is happening even as new listings continue to come to market at an above-average pace. Cumulative new listings from January through April reached 18,724, which is 2.0 percent below last year but still 29.8 percent above the long-run average for the same period. Sellers are not pulling back sharply. Buyers are simply absorbing more of what comes to market.

That absorption story is reflected in the pending listing count. Pending sales reached 5,125 today, up 6.0 percent from 4,837 on the same date last year. Cumulative pending listings from January through April totaled 16,163, a 6.0 percent year over year gain and 16.0 percent above the long-run average for the period. Pending sales are a leading indicator of where closed sales will land thirty to sixty days out, so this is the kind of reading that points to firmer demand through late spring. Of those 5,125 pending homes, 1,812 are new construction and 3,313 are resale, meaning resale demand is participating in the improvement, not just builder activity.

Price pressure on existing inventory remains a defining feature of the austin housing market right now. Of the 16,234 active listings, 48.3 percent have already taken at least one price drop, with another 49.1 percent unchanged and only 2.0 percent showing a price increase. That ratio tells you that nearly half of all sellers in the metro have already had to recalibrate their expectations to meet the market. In Pflugerville the price drop share runs at 54.0 percent. In Hutto it is 57.3 percent. In San Marcos it is 57.2 percent. These are not small numbers, and they reinforce that buyers continue to hold meaningful negotiating leverage in most submarkets.

The Activity Index, which measures pending listings as a share of total available inventory, rose to 24.0 percent in 2026 from 22.9 percent in 2025, an improvement of 5.0 percent year over year. The resale activity index sits at 21.00 percent and new construction at 32.45 percent. The metro as a whole is in what is classified as the softening phase, where sales are slower and inventory tends to rise, but the year over year direction has improved for several months in a row. New construction continues to perform in the expansion range above 30 percent, which is consistent with builders using rate buydowns and incentives to keep their pipelines moving.

Months of Inventory is another lens on the same story. Today the metro reads 5.71 months, down from 5.84 in May 2025, a 2.2 percent year over year decline. That places the broader market squarely in the Neutral Zone, which is defined as 150 to 207 days of inventory and characterized by balanced conditions and stable pricing. Within that average there is wide variation. Cedar Park sits at 2.90 months, which is firmly in Seller Acceleration territory. Pflugerville and Round Rock are in the high three to low four month range. Meanwhile Bastrop, Elgin, and Marble Falls are still showing more than thirteen months of supply, putting them in Buyer Control conditions where prices continue to face downward pressure.

On the price side, the median sold price for April 2026 finalized at $440,000, which is down 1.2 percent from April 2025 and 20.0 percent below the May 2022 peak of $550,000. The average sold price for April came in at $588,938, down 13.64 percent from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. Looking at the long arc, the median price is currently 5.38 percent below where it stood thirty six months ago, which is meaningfully better than the worst readings in this cycle. The market continues to inch closer to the zero line on that thirty six month comparison, which is one of the cleanest tests of whether the bottom of this correction is in.

The new listing to pending ratio for April closed at 0.68, well below the twenty five year average of 0.82. The full year to date ratio is 0.74. A reading under 1.0 means more homes are entering pending status relative to the supply being added, which gradually works inventory down. The cumulative gap between new listings and pending sales for the year sits at 2,561 units, the smallest such gap since 2023.

For real estate agents working with buyers, the takeaway is that the days of sliding prices and growing inventory are giving way to a more nuanced picture. Some submarkets are tightening, some are still soft, and pricing strategy increasingly needs to be tailored zip code by zip code. For sellers, the message is that the market is willing to absorb properly priced homes at a faster pace than a year ago, but the 48.3 percent price drop rate confirms that aggressive initial pricing still leads to chase markets and longer days on market. For investors watching the austin real estate forecast, the combination of a 6.0 percent year over year lift in pending sales, a flattening inventory line, and a Market Flow Score of 4.32 versus a historical average of 6.56 says the market is improving from a slow base, not running away from anyone.

This austin market update will continue to track whether the year over year inventory line crosses firmly into negative territory and whether the Market Flow Score builds on its current 4.32 reading. The next four months will be the most important stretch of 2026 for confirming whether the austin housing market has truly transitioned from correction to recovery.

Visit the Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing at teamprice.com/austin-daily-real-estate-briefing for the complete archive of daily market data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Months of Inventory and what does Austin's number mean for buyers?

Months of Inventory is a calculation that estimates how long it would take to sell every active listing on the market at the current pace of sales, with no new homes added. The austin metro is currently at 5.71 months of inventory, which is down 2.2 percent from 5.84 months in May 2025. That places the metro in the Neutral Zone, defined as 150 to 207 days, where conditions are considered balanced and pricing tends to remain stable. For buyers this means they have meaningful selection and time to decide, but they should not expect the same level of price concessions in every submarket since cities like Cedar Park at 2.90 months are now firmly tilted toward sellers.

Are Austin new construction homes selling faster than resale homes?

Yes, new construction is currently absorbing at a noticeably faster pace than resale inventory in the austin housing market. The new construction Activity Index sits at 32.45 percent, which is in the expansion phase indicating strong demand. Resale activity is at 21.00 percent, which is in the softening phase. Of the 5,125 pending listings today, 1,812 are new construction and 3,313 are resale, so on a percentage of available inventory basis, builders are clearing their listings considerably faster than individual home sellers. This gap is largely driven by builder rate buydowns, closing cost incentives, and price flexibility that most resale sellers cannot match.

Which Austin suburbs have the best value for homebuyers right now?

Several austin suburbs are showing strong buyer leverage based on today's data, particularly those with high months of inventory and large year over year price declines. Marble Falls is down 18.0 percent year over year on median price and shows 13.50 months of inventory. Elgin is down 9.3 percent year over year with 13.03 months of supply. Bastrop currently has 12.35 months of inventory. Buyers focused on value should also look at Lockhart, where median prices are down 11.7 percent year over year, and Spicewood, with 18.64 months of inventory and prices down 8.3 percent year over year.

What is the absorption rate in Austin and why does it matter?

The absorption rate measures the percentage of active listings that sell in a given month, and the austin metro currently reads 19.63 percent against a historical average of 31.40 percent. That means roughly one in five active homes is selling each month, compared to roughly one in three in a typical year. A reading above 30 percent generally signals a strong seller's market, while a reading under 10 percent points to a sluggish buyer favored market. Today's 19.63 percent reading places the market in the softer end of balanced territory, which is consistent with the broader picture of healthy but not aggressive demand and a still elevated supply position.

How does the Austin housing market compare to the national average?

The austin housing market has corrected more sharply than the national average since 2022, with the median sold price down 20.0 percent from the May 2022 peak of $550,000 to today's $440,000. Most national indices show the broader United States housing market is essentially flat to modestly positive over the same period, meaning Austin underperformed during the correction phase as inventory expanded and price discovery played out. The flip side is that Austin now offers more relative value and stronger long term appreciation potential, with a 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.694 percent and a projected return to peak around April 2031. The 6.0 percent year over year improvement in pending sales suggests the gap between Austin and the national trend may be starting to close.

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