Median Price Holds at $445K in April 2026

Median Price Holds at $445K in April 2026
Austin Housing Forecast

Austin Real Estate Market Update April 28, 2026 | Daily Briefing

Austin Median Home Price Holds Steady at $445,000 in April as Market Finds Its Footing. After nearly four years of falling prices, the Austin housing market may finally be approaching a floor.

The April 2026 austin market update tells a story that buyers, sellers, investors, and real estate agents have been waiting to hear. The median sold price came in at $445,000 this month, just $500 lower than April 2025 and effectively flat on a year-over-year basis. That is a meaningful shift from the steep declines that defined much of 2023, 2024, and early 2025. For anyone tracking the austin housing forecast, this kind of stability at the median is the first real signal that the long correction may be transitioning into a new phase.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for April 28, 2026.

To put today's number in historical context, the Austin median sold price peaked at $550,000 in May 2022. Today's $445,000 represents a 19.09 percent drop from that peak, a $105,000 decline. The market has been slowly grinding lower for the better part of four years, but the rate of decline has clearly slowed. The same-month year-over-year comparison shows essentially zero change, which is the kind of flatlining that often precedes a true bottom in real estate cycles.

The average sold price tells a slightly different but complementary story. April 2026 came in at $589,035, which is actually up 1.1 percent from April 2025. The average has dropped 13.62 percent from its May 2022 peak of $681,939. When the average rises while the median stays flat, it usually means the upper end of the market is doing better than the lower end. That observation is supported by today's percentile data. The bottom 25th percentile of homes sold in the past 30 days came in at $330,000 with no change in price year over year, though price per square foot dropped 3.6 percent. The top 25th percentile rose 1.1 percent in price to $642,000, though price per square foot dipped just 0.5 percent. Higher-end Austin real estate is showing more resilience right now than entry-level inventory.

On the supply side, active residential listings sit at 16,097 today. That is only 0.8 percent above the 15,965 listings on the same date in 2025, a remarkably small gap considering how much inventory has expanded over the past two years. The previous peak came on June 30, 2025 at 18,146 listings, which means today's count is 2,049 below that peak. Inventory is no longer growing year over year at the pace it was in 2023 and 2024, which matters for the austin housing forecast going forward. New construction makes up 3,773 of the active listings, while resale accounts for 12,324.

Price drops continue to be a major theme. Today, 48.1 percent of all active listings have had at least one price reduction. That number reflects sellers adjusting expectations to meet where buyers actually are. For sellers, the takeaway is straightforward. Pricing correctly the first time matters more than ever, because nearly half of the competition has already been forced to chase the market down with reductions.

Demand signals are quietly improving. Pending listings totaled 5,281 today, up 5.8 percent from 4,990 in April 2025. New construction pendings make up 1,893 of that total, while resale pendings come in at 3,388. The cumulative pending count from January through April is 15,464, which is 1.4 percent ahead of last year and 11.2 percent above the long-term average. Buyers are out there. They are negotiating, but they are also closing.

The Activity Index, which measures pending listings as a share of total inventory plus pendings, sits at 24.7 percent for the full market today, up from 23.8 percent in April 2025. New construction is running at 33.41 percent, firmly in expansion territory, while resale sits at 21.56 percent, in the softening phase. This split is one of the most important dynamics in the current austin real estate landscape. New construction is moving faster than resale because builders have been more willing to use price cuts, rate buydowns, and incentives to close deals. Buyers are responding to that math. Real estate agents working with buyers should pay close attention to how aggressively builders are competing right now.

Months of Inventory, the classic measure of supply and demand balance, came in at 5.63 months in April 2026 versus 5.69 in April 2025, a small 1.1 percent decline. That puts the broader Austin market in the Neutral Zone, where balanced conditions and stable pricing are typical. Resale-only data shows wide variation across the metro. Cedar Park, Pflugerville, and Round Rock are running tight at under 4 months of inventory, while cities like Bastrop, Spicewood, and Smithville sit above 11 months in Buyer Control territory.

The Absorption Rate, which measures how quickly active listings are selling, came in at 15.72 percent for April. That is roughly half the historical average of 31.39 percent. The Market Flow Score, our composite efficiency measure, sits at 3.15 against a historical average of 6.55. The market is moving, but it is moving at about half the speed of a normal Austin year. For investors, this slower turnover environment creates opportunity, particularly when paired with motivated sellers.

Looking at the longer arc of the austin real estate forecast, the data suggests we are near a turning point. The median price is flat year over year. Pending sales are rising. Inventory growth has stalled. The Activity Index is improving. None of these are dramatic moves on their own, but together they paint a picture of a market that is finishing one chapter and beginning another. Our internal projection model, built on the 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.74 percent, suggests it would take approximately 57 months from today, or until December 2030, for the median sold price to return to the prior peak of $551,209.

For buyers, the current environment offers leverage that has not existed in Austin in years. Inventory is plentiful, sellers are willing to negotiate, and price drops are widespread. For sellers, the message is to price realistically and stage well, because buyers are comparing your home against thousands of other options. For investors, the slower absorption and high price-drop percentage create entry points that did not exist when the market was overheated. For real estate agents, this is a market that rewards data fluency, patience, and honest conversations with clients about where pricing actually needs to be.

For more market context, see the Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing at teamprice.com/austin-daily-real-estate-briefing for the complete archive of daily market data.

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FAQ Section

1. What does the Market Flow Score mean for Austin buyers and sellers?

The Market Flow Score, or MFS, is a composite efficiency measure that combines four turnover metrics into a single index scaled from 0 to 10. Today's MFS sits at 3.15, well below the historical average of 6.55, which means the Austin market is moving at less than half its typical pace. For buyers, this slower flow translates directly into negotiating power, longer decision windows, and more inventory to choose from without the pressure of competing offers. For sellers, the low MFS means that simply listing a home is no longer enough, since pricing strategy, condition, and presentation all carry far more weight in a sluggish market than they did during the boom years.

2. How long will it take for Austin home prices to recover to their 2022 peak?

Based on the 25-year compound appreciation rate for Austin of 4.74 percent and assuming the current median sold price of $445,000 represents the bottom of the correction, it would take approximately 57 months, or until December 2030, for prices to return to the May 2022 peak of $551,209. The market is currently down 19.1 percent from that peak and would require 23.6 percent appreciation to fully recover. This timeline assumes Austin returns to its long-term historical growth pattern without further declines, which the recent flattening of the median price year over year suggests is becoming increasingly likely.

3. Is Georgetown Texas a good place to buy a home in 2026?

Georgetown shows mixed signals in today's data, making it a market that rewards selective buyers. The city has 1,205 active listings, the most of any suburb outside Austin proper, with an Activity Index of 23.19 percent placing it in the softening phase. The median sold price for Georgetown in 2026 sits at $430,000, down 4.4 percent year over year, with Months of Inventory at 4.90 indicating a Neutral Zone market. Buyers willing to negotiate and shop carefully will find plenty of inventory and motivated sellers, while those looking for rapid appreciation should temper expectations given the current softening trend.

4. What is happening with new construction in the Austin market?

New construction is the most active segment of the Austin market right now, with an Activity Index of 33.41 percent that places it firmly in expansion territory, compared to resale at just 21.56 percent in softening. Of today's 5,281 pending listings, 1,893 are new construction, representing about 36 percent of all pending sales despite new construction making up only about 23 percent of active inventory. Builders have been aggressive with price cuts, mortgage rate buydowns, and closing cost incentives, which has shifted significant buyer demand toward newly built homes. For buyers comparing options, the math often favors new construction right now, and resale sellers need to recognize they are competing against builders with deep pockets and flexible terms.

5. Are Austin home sellers still getting their asking price?

The current sold-to-list ratio for April 2026 came in at 97.67 percent, which means the typical Austin home is selling for just over 2 percent below its final list price. That ratio has held remarkably steady in the 96 to 98 percent range for the past two years, even as the market has softened considerably. The key word is "final" list price, because 48.1 percent of currently active listings have already taken at least one price drop before reaching this stage. Sellers who price aggressively from day one are achieving cleaner sales close to asking, while those who start high are typically forced to reduce one or more times before finding a buyer.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.