Georgetown, Round Rock and Cedar Park Lead March 2026 Austin Housing Market Update

Georgetown, Round Rock and Cedar Park

Lead March 2026 Austin Housing Market Update

Not all Austin suburbs are moving at the same speed, and knowing the difference could be worth thousands of dollars.

The austin real estate market is telling two very different stories depending on where you look. In some parts of the metro, homes are moving quickly and sellers still hold the upper hand. In others, buyers are stacking up leverage as inventory climbs and prices soften. Today's austin market update for March 5, 2026 breaks down what is happening at the city and suburb level so that buyers, sellers, investors, and real estate agents can make smarter decisions right now.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for March 05, 2026.

Starting with the big picture, there are currently 13,472 active residential listings across the Austin metro. That number is up 9.5% compared to this same point in 2025, when there were 12,302 active homes on the market. While inventory is still well below the all-time high of 18,146 reached in June 2025, the steady growth in supply is continuing to shift the balance of power in many neighborhoods. Of those 13,472 active listings, nearly half, exactly 48%, have already had at least one price reduction. That single statistic tells you a lot about where sellers stand right now in many parts of town.

When you look at where the market sits by activity level, the numbers are clear. The overall Activity Index for resale homes stands at 24.1%, which places the market in the softening phase. This means sales are slowing, inventory is rising, and buyers have more room to negotiate than they did during the peak years. New construction is actually performing much better, with a 30.3% Activity Index that puts that segment in the expansion phase. If you are comparing resale homes to new builds right now, the data suggests new construction is absorbing faster and carrying less price cut risk for builders.

At the city level, the differences are striking. Cedar Park stands out as one of the strongest submarkets in the region, with just 2.90 months of inventory. That is one of the lowest readings in the entire metro and places Cedar Park firmly in seller-friendly territory. Round Rock is close behind at 3.99 months, and Pflugerville comes in at 3.86 months. These three suburbs are moving noticeably faster than the broader market and have maintained stronger demand relative to supply.

On the other end of the spectrum, areas like Lago Vista (11.23 months), Burnet (11.89 months), Bastrop (12.35 months), Elgin (13.03 months), and Dale (35.25 months) are carrying significant oversupply. In markets with inventory this high, buyers have substantial negotiating power, and sellers who are not pricing aggressively are sitting on the market for a long time. For investors and buyers willing to do their homework, these softer suburbs may offer the best entry points in the current austin housing cycle.

Georgetown deserves special attention in today's austin housing forecast. With 993 active listings and 55.7% of them having already experienced at least one price drop, Georgetown is one of the most price-cut heavy submarkets in the metro. Its Months of Inventory sits at 5.23, up from 5.40 in March 2025, though that year-over-year improvement of about 17.7% is a sign that conditions may be stabilizing somewhat. Georgetown's Activity Index comes in at 22.57%, placing it in the softening range. For buyers targeting this area, there is room to negotiate, especially on resale homes.

Liberty Hill is another suburb worth watching closely. With 408 active listings and 63.2% of them carrying at least one price reduction, Liberty Hill has the highest rate of price drops among the larger Austin suburbs tracked in this report. Its Activity Index of 22.38% sits in the softening range, and its Months of Inventory is at 5.86. Buyers shopping Liberty Hill right now are in a relatively strong position to push for favorable terms.

Meanwhile, the broader austin real estate data shows that the median sold price in February 2026 was $411,280. That is down 3.8% compared to the same month last year, and it represents a 25.22% decline from the peak median price of $550,000 reached in May 2022. To put that in dollar terms, the median has dropped approximately $139,000 from its high. Using the market's 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.423%, projections suggest it would take until approximately December 2032 for the median to recover to its previous peak. That is a long runway, but it also means that buyers purchasing today at current prices have time on their side for long-term gains.

The Absorption Rate, which measures what percentage of active listings sell in a given period, currently stands at 17.03%. The historical average is 31.48%, meaning the current rate is roughly half of what a typical healthy market produces. When fewer listings are selling relative to supply, it takes longer to clear inventory, which puts continued downward pressure on prices across most of the metro. The Market Flow Score reinforces this picture. The current reading of 3.88 is well below the historical average of 6.57, indicating a sluggish market where inventory is moving slowly and seller momentum remains weak.

For real estate agents, the city-level splits are where strategy gets built. Working with buyers in Cedar Park, Round Rock, or Pflugerville requires a more competitive approach and faster timelines. Listing in Liberty Hill, Georgetown, or Bastrop requires aggressive pricing and realistic seller expectations from the start. The resale Activity Index of just 21.31% means that in most areas, fewer than one in five homes for sale will go under contract in a given period.

For investors, the question of where to focus capital in 2026 comes down to a clear choice between growth and value. Cedar Park and Pflugerville represent stability and faster absorption. Softer markets like Bastrop and Elgin represent discount entry points with more long-term risk tied to oversupply correction timelines. Either way, the austin real estate forecast for 2026 points to a market where specific zip codes and cities matter far more than broad metro-level trends.

Whether you are buying, selling, or simply watching the market, staying informed with daily data is the most powerful tool available in today's environment. Visit Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing at teamprice.com/austin-daily-real-estate-briefing for the complete archive of daily market data.

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FAQ SECTION

Is now a good time to buy a home in Austin?

The answer to this question depends heavily on which part of the Austin metro you are focused on. As of March 5, 2026, there are 13,472 active residential listings, with 48% of all active homes having already seen at least one price reduction, which signals that sellers in many areas are adjusting to buyer demand. The median sold price is currently $411,280, which is about 25% below the 2022 peak, giving buyers access to prices that were simply not available two or three years ago. For buyers who have done their research and are targeting the right suburbs, this is one of the most favorable entry environments since before the pandemic. The key is knowing which cities offer the best combination of price correction and long-term value.

Are home prices dropping in Austin Texas?

Yes, home prices in Austin have been declining from their 2022 highs and are still adjusting as of early 2026. The current median sold price of $411,280 is down 3.8% from February 2025, and it sits roughly $139,000 below the all-time median peak of $550,000 recorded in May 2022. Across the metro, 22 out of 30 tracked cities are showing median prices that are lower year over year, with only 7 cities registering gains and 2 staying flat. Cities like Liberty Hill, Georgetown, Hutto, and Kyle are among the areas showing notable price softening, while places like Wimberley and Smithville have actually seen increases. The overall trend across most of the Austin housing market remains one of gradual price correction rather than sharp collapse.

What is the Austin housing market forecast for 2026?

Based on current data through March 5, 2026, the austin housing forecast points to continued softness in most resale submarkets, with selective pockets of stability or modest growth in high-demand suburbs. The Activity Index for resale homes sits at 21.31%, firmly in the softening phase, while Months of Inventory has grown to 4.78, up 10.6% from last year. The Market Flow Score of 3.88 is well below the historical average of 6.57, which signals that the market is not yet absorbing inventory at a normal pace. However, pending listings are up 6% year over year and are running 11.5% above the long-term cumulative average, which suggests demand is gradually improving even if it has not yet caught up to supply. For 2026, the most likely scenario is a slow, uneven stabilization rather than a dramatic rebound.

How does Austin inventory compare to historical levels?

Austin currently has 13,472 active residential listings, which is 9.5% higher than this time in 2025 but still well below the recent peak of 18,146 set in June 2025. The New Listing to Pending Ratio for 2026 is currently 0.75, which is below the 25-year average of 0.82, meaning that for every listing coming onto the market, buyers are not yet absorbing them at the historical rate. Year to date, there are 963 more new listings than pending contracts, creating a growing gap that keeps supply elevated. The Absorption Rate of 17.03% is roughly half the historical average of 31.48%, which confirms that inventory is not being cleared at a normal pace. While Austin is not at the extreme highs seen during the peak supply period of mid-2025, inventory levels remain elevated enough to give buyers real negotiating room across most of the metro.

Which Austin cities have the most price drops right now?

Liberty Hill leads the metro with 63.2% of its active listings having experienced at least one price reduction, making it the city with the highest concentration of price cuts among the larger tracked suburbs. Georgetown follows closely at 55.7%, with 993 active listings and Months of Inventory at 5.23. Hutto (56.3%), Kyle (57.6%), and Lockhart (58.5%) are also among the communities with the most widespread price reductions relative to their listing count. Buda sits at 54.1% and San Marcos at 54.8%, both of which are well above the metro-wide average of 48.0%. Buyers targeting any of these cities should recognize that price cuts are already happening at a high rate, which may indicate sellers are motivated and further negotiation may be possible.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

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