Austin Real Estate Market Update

Austin Real Estate Market Update – February 12, 2026

Active residential listings sit at 13,033. That is up 11.6 percent compared to this time last year when inventory stood at 11,674. While that is well below the prior high of 18,146 reached in late June 2025, it still represents a materially higher supply environment than what buyers experienced in the ultra tight years of 2020 through 2022. For anyone watching the Austin real estate market closely, supply is no longer the problem.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for February 12, 2026.

Nearly half of all active listings, 49.7 percent, have already had at least one price drop. That statistic alone tells a clear story. Sellers are adjusting to buyer resistance. The days of listing high and expecting multiple offers are largely behind us. In this Austin market update, pricing strategy matters more than ever. If a home is not positioned correctly from day one, the data shows there is almost a fifty percent chance it will require a reduction.

Breaking down inventory further, 4,001 of the active listings are new construction and 9,032 are resale. Builders continue to represent a meaningful portion of total supply, and they are often more aggressive with incentives and pricing adjustments. That places additional competitive pressure on resale sellers who must compete not only with other homeowners but also with builders offering rate buy downs and closing cost assistance.

Cumulative new listings from January through February total 5,130. That is down 34.4 percent year over year and 15.7 percent below the long term average. At first glance, that might sound supportive of prices. However, cumulative pending contracts during the same time period are down even more sharply at 4,231, which is 35.8 percent lower year over year and 29.1 percent below average. When both supply and demand are contracting, what matters most is the relationship between the two.

The Activity Index gives us that perspective. Today it stands at 22.7 percent compared to 24.5 percent last year. That represents a 7.1 percent decline in market activity. New construction has an Activity Index of 27.65 percent, while resale sits at just 20.30 percent. Resale is clearly weaker. Based on the defined market phases, much of the resale market remains in the softening to contraction range. In simple terms, sales velocity is slow, and price pressure continues.

The monthly new listing to pending ratio is currently 0.63. On a year to date basis, the ratio is 0.70 compared to a 25 year average of 0.82. A ratio below the long term average signals that new supply is outpacing buyer absorption relative to historical norms. The cumulative difference between new listings and pending contracts stands at 899. That gap is not catastrophic, but it does reflect a market that is not clearing inventory quickly.

Months of inventory reinforces this picture. Inventory stands at 4.62 months compared to 4.05 months one year ago, a 14 percent increase. In the resale only category, many cities are firmly in buyer advantage or buyer control territory. While the overall Austin area shows a modest 4.1 percent decline in months of inventory year over year, the two year comparison shows inventory up 8.7 percent. The broader trend remains elevated supply relative to recent history.

Demand metrics tell a similar story. There were 1,904 homes sold in February. Cumulative sold properties from January through February total 3,566. That is 8.0 percent lower year over year, though still 7.4 percent above the long term average. On a per population basis, cumulative sold per 100,000 residents is 134, down 9.9 percent year over year and 23.3 percent below average. When adjusted for the number of Realtors in the market, cumulative sold per 1,000 Realtors is 203, down 1.3 percent year over year and 20.2 percent below average. In short, there are fewer transactions per agent, which reflects competitive pressure across the industry.

Pricing remains under pressure. The average sold price for February is $562,254. The median sold price is $432,000. From the May 2022 peak median of $550,000, today’s median represents a 21.45 percent decline, or approximately $118,000. The average price is down 17.55 percent from its peak of $681,939. These are not small corrections. This is a meaningful reset in Austin housing values.

When we track the median sold price versus 36 months prior, the market is currently down 0.69 percent. That metric shows how far we have moved from the extreme appreciation period. The bottom 25th percentile of homes has seen prices decline 5.68 percent year over year, while the top 25th percentile is essentially flat at 0.17 percent growth. Higher end properties are holding up better than entry level homes. That suggests affordability constraints are weighing more heavily on first time and move up buyers.

Looking forward, the Austin housing forecast must be rooted in data. If we assume the market has reached a bottom at $432,000 and apply the 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.620 percent annually, it would take approximately 66 months, or until July 2031, to return to a prior peak median of $551,309. That projection assumes normal historical growth resumes. If growth is slower, the recovery timeline extends further.

Absorption rate provides another lens. The sold to active ratio stands at 14.90 percent compared to a historical average of 31.54 percent. A ratio under 15 percent indicates a sluggish market. The Market Flow Score is 3.17 compared to a historical average of 6.58. Both metrics confirm that turnover efficiency is well below long term norms. This Austin real estate forecast is not signaling a rapid rebound. It is signaling stabilization with continued selective price adjustments.

For buyers, this environment provides leverage. Nearly half of listings have reduced prices, inventory is elevated compared to recent years, and sellers are more open to negotiation. For sellers, pricing accurately and preparing the home properly are critical. The data shows that overpricing leads to reductions and longer days on market. For investors, opportunities exist, particularly in segments where prices have corrected sharply, but underwriting must assume conservative appreciation.

The Austin real estate market is not in crisis, but it is not in expansion either. It is in a normalization phase following one of the most aggressive appreciation cycles in local history. This Austin market update confirms that supply remains manageable but elevated, demand is steady but below peak, and prices are stabilizing at lower levels.

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FAQ Section

Is the Austin housing market still declining in 2026?

The data shows that prices have already declined significantly from the 2022 peak, with the median down over 21 percent. However, current year over year changes are much smaller, with the median only 0.69 percent lower than 36 months prior. That suggests the sharpest part of the correction has already occurred. The Austin housing forecast now points more toward stabilization than continued steep declines, though selective price pressure remains.

How much inventory is in the Austin real estate market right now?

There are 13,033 active residential listings in the Austin area. That is 11.6 percent higher than one year ago but well below the peak inventory seen in mid 2025. Months of inventory stands at 4.62, which is higher than last year but not extreme by historical standards. This level of supply gives buyers options without creating a severe oversupply crisis.

Are Austin home prices expected to return to their peak soon?

Using the 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.620 percent, it would take about 66 months to return to prior peak median levels if appreciation resumes at historical norms. That projects recovery around mid 2031. This Austin real estate forecast assumes steady economic conditions and no new shock to demand. Faster recovery would require stronger job growth and improved affordability.

Is it a good time to buy a home in Austin?

From a data perspective, buyers have more negotiating power today than they did in 2021 or early 2022. Nearly half of listings have reduced prices, and the absorption rate is well below its historical average. That creates opportunities for well qualified buyers who plan to hold long term. However, short term appreciation should not be assumed, and buyers should focus on affordability and long term value.

What does the Activity Index tell us about the Austin market update?

The Activity Index measures the percentage of active listings that go under contract. At 22.7 percent, it is below last year and below the threshold for a strong seller environment. Resale activity is especially soft at 20.30 percent. This confirms that the Austin housing market is currently in a softening to contraction phase rather than expansion.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.