Today’s Austin real estate update shows active residential listings at 14,178, which is 14.6 percent higher than this time last year. While inventory has come down from the late-June 2025 peak of 18,146 listings, the market remains well supplied relative to demand. More importantly, over 57 percent of all active listings have recorded at least one price reduction, reinforcing that sellers are actively adjusting expectations to meet current buyer conditions.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for December 15, 2025.
New supply remains elevated. Cumulative new listings from January through December now total 49,029 homes, which is up 3.1 percent year over year and more than 20 percent above the long-term average. This confirms that sellers continue to bring inventory to market at a steady pace, even as demand remains muted. In a healthy expansion cycle, new listings and pending contracts rise together. In today’s environment, that balance is clearly missing.
Pending listings currently sit at 3,635, which is down 3.5 percent from last year. On a cumulative basis, year-to-date pending contracts total 42,274, representing a 4.3 percent decline year over year. While this total is still slightly above the historical average, it is meaningfully lagging new listings. The gap between cumulative new listings and cumulative pending contracts now stands at 6,755 homes, a structural imbalance that continues to feed inventory growth and downward pricing pressure.
This imbalance is captured clearly in the Activity Index, one of the most reliable indicators of real demand. The Activity Index has declined from 23.3 percent last year to 20.4 percent today, a drop of 12.6 percent year over year. In plain terms, fewer active listings are converting into pending contracts. New construction continues to outperform resale with an Activity Index of 27.34 percent, while resale homes sit at just 17.15 percent. That resale reading places much of the market in contraction territory, where pricing pressure and longer days on market become unavoidable.
When resale Activity Index levels are mapped across market phases, the picture becomes even clearer. Nearly half of resale areas fall into the contraction or danger zone, while more than one-third are already in the crisis or freeze category. These are conditions historically associated with buyer hesitation, longer marketing times, and the need for aggressive pricing and incentives. Only a very small portion of the resale market remains in equilibrium or expansion.
The monthly new listing to pending ratio further confirms this demand slowdown. Today’s monthly ratio stands at 0.69, well below the 25-year average of 0.82. On a year-to-date basis, the ratio is 0.73, again under long-term norms. This means that for every new listing coming to market, fewer homes are being absorbed into contract. Over time, this dynamic mathematically guarantees rising inventory unless demand improves or supply contracts meaningfully.
Months of inventory has responded exactly as expected. The Austin market now sits at 5.06 months of inventory, up 15.7 percent from last year’s 4.37 months. While this level is not extreme by historical standards, it clearly places the market in buyer-advantage territory. Resale-only months of inventory data shows a wide dispersion, with many cities and zip codes well above six months, signaling excess supply and limited urgency among buyers.
Sales activity reflects this cooling demand. A total of 2,363 homes sold in December, bringing cumulative 2025 sales to 30,108. That figure is down 4.1 percent year over year, though still modestly above the long-term average. However, when sales are adjusted for population growth, the picture weakens further. Cumulative sales per 100,000 residents are down 6.4 percent year over year and more than 21 percent below average. Sales per 1,000 Realtors are also running more than 23 percent below historical norms, underscoring the competitive pressure agents continue to face.
Pricing trends remain under downward pressure but are beginning to stabilize relative to recent history. The average sold price for December is $599,940, down roughly 12 percent from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. Median sold price stands at $450,000, marking an 18 percent decline from the $550,000 peak reached in 2022. Notably, median prices are now flat compared to levels from 36 months ago, suggesting the market has worked through much of its excess valuation.
Long-term perspective is critical here. Austin’s 25-year compound annual appreciation rate is just under 5 percent. If the market has indeed reached a durable bottom near today’s median price, historical growth rates suggest it would take roughly 53 months, or until around April 2030, to return to prior peak values. This reinforces that the current cycle is not about rapid rebounds, but about normalization.
Price behavior also varies by price tier. Over the past year, the bottom 25 percent of the market has seen prices decline by just over 3 percent, while the top 25 percent has managed to post slight gains. This divergence reflects affordability constraints at the lower end and greater flexibility among higher-end buyers. At the city level, only seven cities are posting year-over-year median price increases, while twenty-three cities remain negative.
Demand metrics continue to confirm a slow market. The absorption rate, measured as the sold-to-active ratio, currently stands at 15.55 percent, less than half the historical average of 31.64 percent. This means inventory is turning over at a much slower pace than normal. The Market Flow Score, which combines multiple turnover and efficiency measures, is 5.50 versus a historical average of 6.58. While not collapsing, market momentum remains clearly below normal levels.
For buyers, this Austin housing forecast continues to favor patience and leverage. Inventory remains plentiful, price reductions are common, and sellers are far more negotiable than in recent years. For sellers, the data makes one thing clear. Pricing correctly from day one is no longer optional. Overpricing almost guarantees longer market times and eventual reductions. Investors should continue to focus on cash flow fundamentals rather than appreciation assumptions, while agents must adapt to a slower, more analytical environment where data and pricing strategy matter more than ever.
As we close out 2025, this Austin real estate market update reflects a market that is no longer correcting sharply, but still far from tight. The path forward depends on demand recovery, affordability, and broader economic conditions. Until those shift meaningfully, buyers remain in control, and disciplined pricing remains the defining feature of successful transactions.
