Austin’s housing market is holding steady in mid-October as higher supply and slower absorption continue to give buyers more leverage across the region.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for October 14, 2025.

Market Overview

The Austin real estate market continues its gradual adjustment phase as inventory levels remain high and buyer activity trails last year’s pace. As of October 14, 2025, the Austin-Area MLS reported 16,539 active residential listings, a 14.5% increase from one year ago. More than 58.7% of all active listings have had at least one price drop, reflecting ongoing pricing pressure in a slower-moving market.

While inventory remains below the June peak of 18,146 listings, it’s still well above typical October levels, keeping overall conditions tilted toward buyers. Pending contracts have dropped slightly, with 3,916 properties currently under contract, down 5.2% year over year, signaling reduced demand compared to last fall.

The Activity Index, which tracks the ratio of pending to active listings, sits at 19.14%, down from 22.2% last October, confirming a 13.9% slowdown in buyer activity. This means that for every 100 homes on the market, only 19 are currently under contract—a clear indication of a market still in contraction.

Housing Prices and Market Balance

Median pricing remains well below the 2022 peak but continues to hold a stable floor. The median sold price in October is $447,500, which is down 18.6% from the May 2022 peak of $550,000 but essentially unchanged month-to-month, suggesting the correction phase may have flattened out. The average sold price is $617,772, a 9.4% decline from the peak but consistent with pricing trends seen throughout 2025.

For context, the 25-year compound appreciation rate for the Austin market is 4.957%. At this long-term pace, a return to the May 2022 peak would take roughly 54 months—projecting recovery by March 2030. That projection assumes steady annual appreciation without further economic shocks or major shifts in mortgage rates.

The Months of Inventory—a key indicator of supply relative to demand—has risen to 5.84 months, compared to 5.13 months last year, marking a 13.8% increase. A balanced market typically sits near 4–5 months, meaning Austin is now slightly oversupplied. Across the 30 tracked cities, months of inventory ranges widely, from a low of 2.14 months in Manchaca to a high of 11.00 months in Smithville, showing localized imbalances depending on price range and geography.

Regional Trends

Regional variations remain sharp. Inside the City of Austin, inventory is up modestly year over year (+0.7%), but suburban and exurban areas have seen larger increases, particularly in markets like Del Valle (+146%), Lockhart (+103%), and Hutto (+65%). These outer markets have been hit harder by affordability challenges and slower absorption rates, leading to a rise in price reductions.

For example, Liberty Hill and Leander each have more than 60% of listings with price cuts, while closer-in markets such as Dripping Springs (55.7%) and Cedar Park (61.4%) show milder, though still significant, adjustments. These trends point toward a market where sellers are increasingly motivated, particularly in higher-supply submarkets.

At the same time, 10 out of 30 tracked cities have seen year-over-year price appreciation, primarily in the upper quartile of the market. The top 25th percentile of homes saw prices rise 3.45%, even as the bottom quartile declined nearly 4%. This illustrates a two-speed market—luxury and well-located properties remain resilient, while entry-level and fringe areas face continued downward price pressure.

List-to-Sale Dynamics

Negotiation leverage continues to lean toward buyers. The absorption rate—the percentage of active listings sold in a given period—has fallen to 17.5%, well below the historical average of 31.8%. This means fewer homes are converting from active to sold status each month, keeping overall turnover low and extending market times.

Similarly, the Market Flow Score (MFS), which measures how efficiently homes move through the market, now sits at 5.66, compared to a long-term average of 6.59. This lower score reflects slower turnover, reduced buyer urgency, and an increase in inventory buildup. The market remains healthy by long-term standards but lacks the velocity that characterized Austin’s post-pandemic years.

Market Forecast

While sales volume has softened—2,433 homes sold in October and 25,616 year-to-date, down 3.3% YoY—activity remains slightly above long-term averages. Cumulative new listings year-to-date total 43,072, which is 18.7% above the historical average, showing that seller participation remains high even as buyer activity lags.

This imbalance between supply and demand has led to a New Listing-to-Pending Ratio of 0.71, compared to the 25-year average of 0.82. In simple terms, the market is adding new listings faster than it’s absorbing them. The gap between cumulative new listings and cumulative pendings for 2025 now stands at 7,361 homes, a figure that directly translates into rising inventory and continued buyer leverage.

The Activity Index for new construction (25.38%) remains stronger than resale (16.68%), indicating that builders are still offering aggressive incentives to maintain absorption rates. Yet, as incentives eventually taper, builder inventory could contribute further to market-wide oversupply heading into early 2026.

For Buyers

Buyers continue to benefit from the current supply-heavy environment. With nearly 60% of listings seeing price reductions and average market times extending, this fall represents one of the most favorable negotiation windows in years. Even though interest rates remain elevated, today’s pricing flexibility and inventory depth allow buyers to target homes with strong long-term upside—particularly in submarkets where supply is tightening, such as Cedar Park or Kyle.

For Sellers

Sellers face a more competitive environment and must price strategically from day one. The widening spread between new listings and pendings underscores the importance of aligning pricing with current demand levels. Overpricing often leads to longer market times and eventual price reductions. Sellers who adjust early—within the first two weeks—are statistically more likely to secure offers within 97–99% of list price.

For Investors

For investors and long-term holders, today’s conditions mirror early-cycle recovery opportunities. With median prices down 18.6% from peak and rents stabilizing, disciplined acquisitions at current pricing levels can yield attractive future appreciation. Using the 25-year compound rate of 4.957%, Austin’s market could return to prior highs by early 2030, making this phase an ideal entry point for cash or low-leverage buyers targeting long-term holds.

Analyst Perspective

The October 2025 data confirms a continued softening trend but also a stabilizing foundation beneath it. The fact that active listings have plateaued since mid-summer and the median price has stopped falling suggests that Austin may be nearing the bottom of its correction phase. However, with the Activity Index still in the Contraction Zone (15–20%), the market isn’t out of balance yet.

Expect the rest of Q4 to follow a slow but steady path toward equilibrium. Price discovery remains ongoing, especially in higher-supply suburban markets. But Austin’s core fundamentals—population growth, job expansion, and migration—remain intact, setting up a potential recovery in the back half of 2026 once absorption improves and inventory moderates.​