Austin’s housing market is showing signs of cautious balance this fall — prices are holding steady, but demand remains sluggish as supply continues to outweigh pending contracts.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for October 7, 2025.
The Austin real estate market continues its steady transition through 2025, shaped by a mix of moderating buyer activity and sustained listing volume. As of October 7, 2025, there are 16,437 active residential listings, a 13.8% increase compared to this time last year. While this marks a decline from the June 2025 high of 18,146, inventory levels remain elevated enough to favor buyers. Roughly 58.8% of all active listings have had at least one price drop, showing that sellers are adjusting to the slower pace of absorption. For buyers, this creates more room to negotiate. For sellers, it underscores the importance of strategic pricing in a market where homes are staying on the market longer than in past years.
Pending listings currently sit at 3,849, which is 5.2% lower year-over-year. The Activity Index, a key indicator of the ratio between active and pending listings, is now at 19.0%, down from 22.0% last year. This suggests demand has softened relative to supply — in other words, buyers have become more selective while sellers are competing harder for attention. This is consistent with what we’ve seen in recent months: a slow but steady recalibration toward a more neutral market, after two years of heavy imbalance following the pandemic peak.
The Months of Inventory figure sits at 5.8 months, up from 5.13 months in 2024, representing a 13% increase year-over-year. A six-month supply is generally considered balanced between buyers and sellers, so Austin is now hovering right around that threshold. However, the composition of inventory tells a more nuanced story. New construction accounts for 25.15% of active listings — significantly higher than typical — while resales represent just 16.58% of market activity. Builders continue to play a key role in shaping pricing trends, often offering incentives or rate buydowns that make it harder for resale sellers to compete head-to-head.
From January through October, 42,183 new listings have hit the market — 1.2% fewer than last year, but 16.3% above the long-term average. Meanwhile, cumulative pending sales during that same period total 34,957, nearly 9% below last year and slightly under the historical average. This results in a New Listing-to-Pending Ratio of 0.71 for the year, compared to a 25-year average of 0.82. This imbalance — more listings entering than going under contract — points to a slower absorption rate, particularly within the resale segment where competition remains intense.
Austin’s Market Flow Score stands at 5.44, below the historical average of 6.59. This metric, which combines several indicators of market efficiency, reflects a market that’s moving inventory more slowly than usual. Combined with an Absorption Rate of 17.1% — well under the historical norm of 31.8% — it’s clear that today’s buyers have more leverage, more options, and less urgency than we saw during the 2020–2022 boom cycle.
On the pricing front, Austin’s average sold price in October is $616,964, while the median sold price is $485,000. Both remain well below their May 2022 peaks, when the average was $681,939 and the median was $550,000 — representing declines of 9.5% and 11.8%, respectively. While those drops may seem significant, they’ve held remarkably steady through 2024 and 2025, suggesting the market has likely reached its correction floor. Based on Austin’s 25-year compound annual appreciation rate of 5.296%, it would take approximately 32 months (until May 2028) for median prices to return to that 2022 peak level if typical appreciation patterns resume. That trajectory aligns with a market moving gradually toward long-term equilibrium rather than rapid rebound.
Sales activity continues to lag. For the first ten months of 2025, 25,664 homes have sold, a 3.1% decline year-over-year, though still 7.4% above the long-term average. When measured per capita, however, the picture looks softer: 1,003 sales per 100,000 population, 20.8% below historical norms. This slowdown isn’t due to lack of interest — it’s primarily affordability pressure. Mortgage rates have remained elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, and household incomes have struggled to keep pace with price appreciation, especially in core Austin neighborhoods.
The price distribution within the market further supports this cooling pattern. The bottom 25th percentile of homes has seen prices drop 3.75% year-over-year, while the top 25th percentile posted modest gains of 2.46%. This divergence shows that higher-end properties continue to hold value better, often buoyed by cash buyers and investors less sensitive to interest rates. Meanwhile, entry-level and mid-tier homes — which rely more on financing — are where affordability constraints are felt most.
Regionally, 9 of 29 tracked cities in the Austin metro have seen year-over-year median price gains, while 20 have declined. Submarkets like Liberty Hill, Leander, and Kyle still carry large inventories relative to demand, while central areas and mature suburbs show tighter, more balanced dynamics. For context, Austin proper’s months of inventory rose 3.3% year-over-year, while the broader metro is up 24.8% year-to-date — evidence of the suburban oversupply that continues to weigh on the overall market.
For sellers, the takeaway is clear: price strategically and prepare for longer market times. For buyers, the environment remains favorable — elevated inventory and widespread price adjustments mean more negotiation opportunities and reduced urgency. Investors should note that the Market Flow Score of 5.44 and absorption rate below 20% point to a market still rich in selection, ideal for those with patient capital and a long-term horizon.
Looking ahead, the Austin housing forecast for late 2025 suggests continued stability with modest improvement in transaction volume through Q1 2026. As interest rates gradually stabilize and seasonal demand picks up, we may see absorption improve slightly. However, the Austin real estate forecast remains cautious overall — the data shows balance is returning, but full recovery in prices will likely take years, not months.
