The Austin real estate market continues to reflect a delicate balance between rising supply and cautious demand, creating an environment that challenges both buyers and sellers. On September 9, 2025, active residential listings stand at 16,977, just below the summer peak of 18,146 reached on June 30. This represents a 17% increase compared to the 14,516 listings available at the same time in 2024. The larger inventory base has shifted negotiating power away from sellers, though opportunities remain for well-priced homes and specific submarkets showing relative strength.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for September 9, 2025.
More than half of today’s active listings—57.9%—have had at least one price drop. This statistic highlights the disconnect between initial list prices and what buyers are willing to pay in today’s Austin housing market. Sellers who set prices too aggressively are being forced to adjust downward, while buyers have become more selective, knowing that increased inventory gives them leverage to negotiate.
New listings have been strong this year, with 38,798 properties added to the market from January through September. Although that figure is slightly lower than last year’s pace by 1.0%, it remains 17.1% above Austin’s long-term average. This suggests homeowners are still motivated to sell, even if they have to adjust expectations. The larger challenge has been demand. Pending listings for the same period total 31,772, down 9.3% year-over-year and 1.4% below average. This gap between supply and demand has left the market with a surplus of 7,026 more new listings than pending contracts year-to-date.
The activity index, which measures the ratio of pending contracts relative to total active inventory, has declined to 19.3% compared with 21.9% a year ago. That represents a 12% drop and shows how slower contract activity is weighing down absorption. New construction continues to capture a larger share of activity, with a 26.96% activity index compared to just 16.31% for resale homes. Builders are able to offer incentives such as rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and upgraded features, giving them an edge over traditional sellers.
The monthly new listing-to-pending ratio stands at 0.53, indicating that for every two new listings, only about one goes under contract. For the year, the cumulative ratio is 0.70, well below the 25-year average of 0.82. This imbalance is one of the clearest signals that the market is tilted toward buyers, as inventory is growing faster than sales activity.
Months of inventory—a key barometer of market balance—has risen to 6.01 compared with 5.16 one year ago, an increase of 16.4%. Historically, Austin has averaged closer to 4 to 5 months of inventory, so today’s level suggests a supply-heavy environment. City-level breakdowns show wide variations, with some areas like Austin itself holding at 5.37 months, while others such as Smithville (15.5 months) and Dale (17.0 months) face extreme oversupply. By contrast, markets like Buda (3.66 months) remain more balanced and attractive to sellers.
Sales performance reinforces the supply-demand divide. Austin saw 2,154 sales close in September, bringing year-to-date totals to 22,669. While that figure is 5.2% lower than last year, it remains 4.5% above Austin’s long-term average. The real drag shows up when adjusted for population growth and Realtor participation. Sales per 100,000 residents are down 7.4% year-over-year and nearly 23% below average, while sales per 1,000 Realtors are down 26.4% from historical norms. This underscores how competition for buyers is tougher than ever among agents.
Prices continue to reflect the broader correction. The average sold price in September was $563,856, down 17.3% from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. The median sold price now sits at $417,000, which is 24.2% below the $550,000 peak recorded in 2022. On a rolling three-year comparison, today’s median is 11.3% lower than the level from September 2022. These declines reflect how far the Austin real estate market has reset after the pandemic-era surge.
Yet the longer-term picture suggests a path to recovery. Austin’s 25-year compound appreciation rate is 4.661%. At that pace, the current median price of $417,000 would climb back to the 2022 peak level of $550,285 by December 2031, roughly six years from now. This projection assumes steady growth and highlights that while the market is still digesting excess supply, long-term fundamentals remain intact.
Breaking down pricing further shows uneven trends. Over the past year, the bottom 25th percentile of homes saw prices decline 4.8% and price per square foot fall 3.8%. The top 25th percentile actually posted a 3.2% increase in price, though price per square foot slipped slightly. This suggests higher-end homes are holding value better, while more affordable segments continue to face pressure from affordability constraints and financing hurdles.
Regional data paints a mixed picture as well. Out of 30 tracked cities, 10 have recorded year-over-year median price increases, while 20 remain in decline. This patchwork performance means agents and buyers must analyze submarkets carefully rather than generalizing about “the Austin market” as a whole.
Absorption rates, measured by the sold-to-active ratio, provide another sign of caution. At 17.5%, absorption is well below the historical average of 31.8%. Strong seller’s markets typically show ratios above 20%, while today’s number falls squarely into buyer’s market territory. Combined with the Market Flow Score of 5.46—below the long-term average of 6.60—the indicators point to sluggish turnover and slower momentum.
For buyers, this environment offers more leverage than Austin has seen in years. They face less competition, more price drops, and greater negotiating power. For sellers, success hinges on accurate pricing, presentation, and flexibility. Homes that show well and are priced realistically can still move quickly, but those that miss the mark are likely to sit. Investors may see opportunity in this reset, as price declines have opened the door to stronger long-term yields, particularly if they can secure properties in markets with below-average months of inventory.
Real estate agents should use this data to guide conversations. Buyers must understand that while prices have dropped sharply from the 2022 peak, long-term appreciation remains intact and overcorrection could create value opportunities. Sellers should be counseled that aggressive list prices no longer work in today’s Austin housing forecast and that aligning with market data is the only way to achieve results. Investors should be reminded that the path back to peak values will take time, but patient capital stands to benefit from Austin’s long-term growth trajectory.
In short, the September 9, 2025 Austin market update reveals a real estate environment where supply is high, demand is uneven, and prices remain well below peak. Both challenges and opportunities exist, but data remains the key to navigating them.
