The Austin housing market enters September 2025 with elevated supply, slower absorption, and price levels still sitting well below the 2022 peak, signaling an extended buyer-favorable environment.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for September 8, 2025.
The Austin real estate market continues to show a careful balancing act between strong listing activity and slower buyer demand. Active residential listings currently sit at 17,105, which is up 17.2 percent compared to the 14,598 homes available at this time last year. While that figure is lower than the high of 18,146 reached on June 30, 2025, it still represents one of the largest active pools of housing inventory the city has seen in recent years. Buyers now have more choices, but sellers are facing increased competition, with 57.9 percent of active listings experiencing at least one price reduction.
Inventory and Market Balance
Months of Inventory has climbed to 6.07, a 16.6 percent increase from 5.21 one year ago. This metric indicates how long it would take to sell the existing inventory at the current pace of demand. A balanced market is generally defined as around six months, so Austin is now firmly in buyer’s market territory. The higher inventory is also paired with an absorption rate of 17.41 percent, well below the historical average of 31.82 percent. This suggests buyers are taking longer to make decisions and that homes are lingering on the market longer than in past years.
For perspective, cumulative new listings from January through September 2025 totaled 38,717. That’s down slightly by 1.2 percent compared to last year but remains nearly 17 percent above the long-term average. While supply growth has slowed in recent months, the overall pace of new listings remains strong, adding continued pressure to the marketplace.
Pending and Sales Activity
Pending contracts, which act as a leading indicator of sales, remain sluggish. There are currently 3,997 pending listings, a 1.5 percent decline from last year. Year-to-date cumulative pendings total 31,585, which is nearly 10 percent below 2024 and two percent below the long-term average. The result is a year-to-date difference of 7,132 more new listings than pendings, pushing the New Listing to Pending ratio for 2025 to 0.70. This is weaker than the 25-year average of 0.82, signaling that more homes are entering the market than buyers are committing to purchase.
Sales activity reflects this cooler demand environment. September recorded 2,319 closed sales, bringing the year-to-date total to 22,823, down 4.6 percent compared to last year but still 5.2 percent above the historical average. When adjusted for population growth, however, the data shows a deeper slowdown: only 893 sales per 100,000 residents, a 6.8 percent year-over-year decline and more than 22 percent below long-term averages. This illustrates that while Austin’s raw sales count looks healthy, demand relative to the region’s population growth has fallen sharply.
Price Trends and Long-Term Positioning
Prices remain well below their 2022 peak values. The average sold price for September was $554,226, down nearly 19 percent from the high of $681,939 reached in May 2022. The median price now stands at $415,373, representing a 24.5 percent, or $135,000, drop from its $550,000 peak. Compared to 36 months ago, the median price is down 11.6 percent, highlighting the depth of the correction. When viewed through a long-term lens, the correction appears more manageable.
The 25-year compound appreciation rate for the Austin market is 4.645 percent annually. If today’s median of $415,373 represents the bottom of the correction cycle, the market would need roughly 78 months—or until February 2032—to naturally return to its prior peak of $551,667 through average appreciation rates. This timeline underscores the importance for both buyers and investors to view current conditions as part of a longer cycle rather than a short-term disruption.
Segmentation by Price Tier
Not all parts of the market are performing the same. Data from September shows the bottom quartile of the market recorded a 4.6 percent decline in price and a 3.7 percent decline in price per square foot compared to last year. By contrast, the top quartile of homes actually gained 4 percent in price, though price per square foot held nearly flat.
This indicates that higher-end homes are showing more resilience, while more affordable segments continue to adjust downward under affordability pressures. Across the metro, 10 cities posted year-over-year median price gains, while 20 showed declines. This uneven performance emphasizes the importance of hyper-local analysis when advising clients, as conditions vary widely between submarkets.
Market Momentum Indicators
Two leading indicators help capture the current market’s momentum: the Activity Index and the Market Flow Score. The Activity Index has dropped to 18.9 percent, down from 21.7 percent one year ago. This decline of nearly 13 percent reflects weaker demand relative to supply. Breaking this down further, new construction activity is holding at 26.2 percent while resale is at 16.2 percent, showing that builders remain a larger portion of the sales mix compared to existing homes.
The Market Flow Score currently measures 5.44 on a scale of 0 to 10, below the historical average of 6.60. This suggests a sluggish, supply-heavy market where turnover is slow. For buyers, this translates to more negotiating power and an increased likelihood of concessions. For sellers, it highlights the need to price competitively and be prepared for longer listing times.
Implications for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors
For buyers, today’s Austin housing forecast points to a favorable environment with more choices and lower prices compared to recent years. The prevalence of price drops—seen in nearly 6 out of 10 listings—means negotiating opportunities are abundant. For sellers, however, patience and strategy are essential. Homes are taking longer to sell, and aggressive pricing strategies are often required to stand out in a crowded marketplace.
Investors evaluating the Austin property market should note both the near-term weakness in absorption and the long-term resilience of Austin real estate. While short-term gains may be limited, the historical appreciation rate demonstrates the value of holding through cycles. Those entering the market at today’s discounted levels are well-positioned for growth as the market stabilizes and gradually trends back toward historical appreciation paths.
