Austin Real Estate at a Turning Point: Listings Surge as Buyer Activity Stalls
The July 22, 2025 edition of the Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing from Team Price Real Estate presents a market environment shaped by expanding inventory, sluggish demand, and declining prices. With active listings just below an all-time high, absorption slowing, and median prices now 20 percent below the 2022 peak, the data makes clear: Austin is firmly in correction territory. This detailed analysis breaks down the numbers that matter, identifying the underlying forces shaping the current housing cycle.
Active residential listings across the Austin area reached 17,905, trailing just 171 listings below the record high of 18,076 set in late June. While this figure may appear to plateau, the trajectory has not meaningfully reversed, especially considering that the same time last year, the peak was just 15,503 listings. That’s a 15.5 percent year-over-year increase, further confirming a swelling supply pipeline. This dynamic is echoed in the Months of Inventory metric, which stands at 6.37—up from 5.41 in July 2024. In practical terms, this equates to a 17.7 percent increase in supply relative to buyer activity, and officially pushes Austin into buyer’s market territory.
Equally notable is the pricing behavior across these listings. An eye-opening 57.9 percent of all active MLS listings have undergone at least one price reduction. In key cities like Georgetown, Leander, Liberty Hill, and Marble Falls, over 60 percent of listings show markdowns, signaling that sellers are feeling the pressure. Georgetown, for example, currently has 1,350 listings with 63.6 percent showing price drops. These adjustments aren’t token; in many areas they are substantial enough to materially shift pricing expectations. This wide-scale reduction trend supports the conclusion that sellers are increasingly responding to stalled traffic, fewer showings, and softening offers.
Turning to demand metrics, the Activity Index dropped to 19.6 percent from 22.5 percent a year ago. This 12.7 percent decline in buyer engagement coincides with Months of Inventory rising well above the neutral threshold of 6.0. The Sold-to-Active Ratio now sits at 17.85 percent—far below the historical average of 31.92 percent. For context, a healthy, balanced market typically shows this ratio in the low-30s; when it drops under 20 percent, it usually signals a prolonged correction or pause in demand momentum.
The cumulative new listings from January through July 2025 now total 32,574. This is a 3.2 percent increase over last year and a substantial 23.1 percent above the 25-year average. While listing activity remains high, pending transactions are falling behind. Year-to-date pending sales total 25,373, which is 9.2 percent lower than the same period in 2024 and 0.9 percent below the long-term average. The gap between new and pending listings now stands at 7,201 units. This imbalance—more new listings without matching demand—reinforces rising inventory pressure.
The Monthly New Listing to Pending Ratio is currently 0.61, while the year-to-date ratio stands at 0.67. Historically, the 25-year average for this metric is 0.81. These figures show the system is under-absorbing new inventory. Every 100 new listings are met with only 61 new pending contracts. This figure has now declined for three consecutive years, demonstrating an erosion in buyer willingness or capacity to act at current price points.
The city-level data reveals that Austin proper has a Months of Inventory reading of 7.21, up 65.5 percent since January. Other suburban markets like Leander (up 100.4 percent YoY), Cedar Creek (up 155.1 percent), and Marble Falls (up 120.7 percent) show even steeper growth in inventory accumulation. These high percentages reflect both a rise in listings and simultaneous demand deceleration. What’s critical to understand is that such spikes in inventory, absent an equally strong rise in demand, apply downward pressure on prices in subsequent quarters.
Looking at closings, July posted 2,728 sold properties. From January through July, cumulative sold properties reached 17,869. This is down 4.9 percent year-over-year but still 7.5 percent above the 25-year average. While the overall pace of sales is historically respectable, the trend direction remains negative. Additionally, when viewed against Austin’s population and agent base, the market is showing signs of saturation. Year-to-date, there have been 701 closed sales per 100,000 population (down 7.1 percent YoY) and 960 per 1,000 realtors (down 0.7 percent YoY). These metrics indicate that productivity per agent is slipping, and buyer velocity relative to population is weakening.
Prices, which are always the lagging indicator, continue to slide. The average sold price now stands at $587,106, a 13.91 percent drop from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. The median sold price is even further off the high—currently at $440,000, a full 20 percent below the $550,000 mark set at peak. The lower quartile (bottom 25 percent of sales) saw prices fall 4.38 percent over the past year, with price per square foot down 5.40 percent. Even in the top 25 percent of the market, prices are down nearly 1 percent, indicating that no tier is immune to the broader deflationary trend.
Market forecasting based on historical appreciation rates further supports the current correction narrative. Assuming the market has found a bottom at the $440,000 median price, and assuming a 4.886 percent annual compound appreciation rate (the 25-year historical norm for Austin), the market would require approximately 59 months—or until May 2030—to recover back to a peak median value of $551,608. That timeline is contingent on steady, uninterrupted appreciation and no macroeconomic shocks.
The Market Flow Score, a metric that measures the pace of absorption and market energy, currently reads 5.18. This is below the historical average of 6.61. Lower scores on this 0–10 scale indicate slower turnover and weaker demand. Together with the other metrics, the MFS supports the thesis that Austin’s market is entering a late-stage correction phase characterized by high inventory, soft prices, and limited urgency among buyers.
In conclusion, the July 22, 2025 snapshot of the Austin real estate market underscores a clear directional pivot. Listings remain elevated, pricing pressure is mounting, and buyer activity is contracting. This is no longer a market with “mixed signals.” The fundamentals all point to a deceleration phase where supply continues to exceed demand. For buyers, the market offers leverage not seen since the early 2010s. For sellers, pricing strategy and home presentation are critical. For agents, understanding this macro shift is essential for properly guiding clients and protecting contracts.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for June 22, 2025.
