“As Austin’s housing market tiptoes through record inventory and subdued buyer activity, the numbers reveal not just a correction—but a rebalancing with long-term implications.”
The July 15, 2025 edition of the Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing reveals a market that continues to flirt with all-time high inventory while demand remains historically low. For seasoned analysts and market participants alike, this latest data set paints a picture of a housing market that is working through a structural correction in both pricing and absorption. Inventory accumulation, slowing pendings, weak sales-to-active ratios, and continued price compression all point to a market in the process of recalibration.
The active listing count stands at 17,839, a small dip from the previous peak of 18,076 set on June 27. This represents a -237 listing change over two and a half weeks—minimal in raw terms but indicative of a market where new supply still outweighs the rate of contract absorption. When benchmarked against July 2024’s high of 15,503, this year’s active inventory represents a 15.1% year-over-year increase, confirming that inventory pressure continues to mount despite mid-year seasonality.
Equally noteworthy is the volume of price activity: 57.9% of all active listings have had at least one price drop. This isn’t isolated to a few outlier markets; nearly every major submarket shows widespread markdowns. Leander, Georgetown, Pflugerville, and Round Rock all report more than 60% of listings undergoing at least one price reduction. Even core Austin stands at 59%. This signals persistent buyer hesitation and seller adaptation to market conditions. The price drops are no longer a sign of panic—they’ve become systemic and necessary for sellers to compete.
The Activity Index, sitting at 19.6%, continues its downward trend and reflects weak buyer engagement. This is a full 12.9% drop from the same period last year (22.5%) and is among the lowest levels since pre-pandemic years. In parallel, the Months of Inventory has risen to 6.34, a 16.9% year-over-year increase from 5.43. This metric strongly signals buyer-market conditions, and while it hasn't yet reached 7 months—often viewed as a deep buyer's market—the trend direction is undeniable. Many submarkets, such as Cedar Creek, Marble Falls, and Smithville, have inventory levels above 10 months. This overhang of unsold homes puts continual downward pressure on pricing and softens negotiating leverage for sellers.
On the supply side, year-to-date cumulative new listings total 31,466. This is down -0.3% year-over-year but remains 19.1% above the long-term average. The real imbalance emerges when comparing this with pending contracts. Pending listings are down -2.9% from July 2024 and stand at 4,346. Even more telling is the cumulative pending volume from January to July: just 24,415 contracts, which is -12.6% lower than last year and 4.5% below average. In essence, supply is not the problem—demand is.
This divergence is best captured in the New Listings to Pending Ratio, which is currently at 0.56 for July and sits at 0.67 for the year. That is well below the 25-year average of 0.81, further reinforcing the widening supply-demand gap. The year-to-date delta between new listings and pendings is now 7,051 homes. This growing surplus directly contributes to the rise in active inventory and foreshadows additional months of price compression.
When it comes to closed transactions, the volume also lags. July’s sales count sits at 2,620. Cumulatively, from January to July, 17,738 homes have sold—down -5.6% from the same period in 2024. However, the long-term historical context tells a more nuanced story. That figure is still +6.8% above the long-term average, suggesting that while 2025 is slower than last year, it is not historically anemic. That said, two crucial metrics cast a shadow over these figures: sales per 100,000 population are down -21.2%, and sales per 1,000 REALTORS are down -25% year-over-year. This means population-adjusted sales efficiency is eroding, and agent productivity is being squeezed further as transaction opportunities become more competitive.
The pricing story remains central to the market narrative. The average sold price now sits at $590,816, down -13.36% from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. The median sold price tells a starker story: now at $447,000, it has dropped -18.73% (or $103,000) from the $550,000 peak in 2022. The 36-month backward comparison also shows median prices off by -13.2%. These drops are not short-term fluctuations—they are multi-year reversals.
Looking ahead, Team Price’s market projection uses the historical compound appreciation rate of 4.953% to estimate the market’s timeline to recovery. At the current median price, it would take approximately 54 months—until December 2029—for the Austin market to return to its previous peak of $551,073, assuming consistent appreciation. That’s nearly four and a half years of subdued gains, which serves as a stark contrast to the rapid price run-up from 2020 to mid-2022.
Price segmentation reveals additional insight. Homes in the bottom 25th percentile saw a -4.41% drop in price and a -5.52% drop in price per square foot year-over-year. Meanwhile, the top 25th percentile saw a modest 1.59% price increase but still experienced a slight dip in price per square foot at -0.14%. This bifurcation suggests upper-tier sellers are holding value slightly better, possibly due to less leverage in those deals or stronger financial positioning among buyers.
The Sold-to-Active ratio is another crucial market health indicator. At 17.83%, it is significantly below the historical average of 31.92%, which signals weak absorption and excessive listing accumulation. Similarly, the Market Flow Score—a proprietary metric developed to capture market velocity—is now at 5.16, notably below the historical average of 6.61. These figures underscore that while listings are moving, they’re doing so slowly, often requiring significant price adjustments and longer days on market.
Together, these metrics reflect a housing market in correction mode. It is no longer an environment of “wait and see”—we are in the thick of a reversion to long-term fundamentals. Buyers, especially those entering with financing, are in an increasingly favorable position, with more options, improved negotiation leverage, and expanding concessions from sellers. However, persistent high mortgage rates remain a counterforce that continues to suppress overall affordability and limits the rebound pace.
In summary, the Austin housing market in mid-July 2025 remains oversupplied, underabsorbed, and price-sensitive. Unless there is a meaningful shift in either demand (e.g., rate cuts, job growth, or investor re-entry) or supply (e.g., construction slowdowns or large-scale expirations), these conditions are likely to persist. For sellers, pricing strategy and timing have never been more critical. For buyers, patience and negotiating discipline may yield compelling opportunities.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for June 16, 2025.
