Market Momentum Weakens as Inventory Holds Near Record Highs: A Detailed Breakdown of Austin’s July 8, 2025 Housing Market

The Austin real estate market continues to exhibit signs of imbalance as the region moves deeper into buyer territory. As of July 8, 2025, active residential listings stand at 17,682, just 394 listings below the all-time high of 18,076 reached on June 27. This elevated inventory is a direct result of a persistent mismatch between new listing volumes and tepid buyer demand, a condition reflected in nearly every metric available in the latest daily report by Team Price Real Estate.

One of the most telling indicators is the share of listings with at least one price reduction—57.1% across the entire MLS. This signals significant price softening pressure, with many sellers responding to buyer resistance or delayed movement. Key cities such as Georgetown, Pflugerville, and Round Rock report reductions exceeding 61%, underscoring the broad-based nature of pricing fatigue across the metro.

Activity levels remain constrained. The Activity Index, a leading indicator of buyer engagement, has dipped to 19.7%, down from 23.2% a year ago, representing a 15.3% year-over-year decline. The continued erosion in buyer activity, despite ongoing price adjustments, illustrates just how cautious today’s buyers are amid economic uncertainty and shifting affordability benchmarks.

Months of Inventory has risen to 6.27, an 18% increase from this time last year when it was 5.31. This shift confirms a firm move into buyer’s market territory based on the stricter seven-month threshold adopted by Team Price Real Estate. Areas like Marble Falls and Cedar Creek now report over 11 months of inventory—levels not seen since the Great Recession in some submarkets—while core areas such as Austin have reached 5.62, inching further from the neutral market zone. Year-to-date, the Austin metro has seen a 28.9% increase in inventory levels, highlighting how new listing growth continues to outpace absorption.

On the supply side, cumulative new listings from January to July have reached 30,411. While that figure is down 3.6% from the same period in 2024, it is still 15.3% above the 25-year average. This above-average listing activity, paired with a 15.9% decline in pending contracts compared to last year, underscores the growing divide between available inventory and committed buyers. Year-to-date, 6,894 more homes have been listed than have gone pending, which continues to push inventory upward and price stability downward.

The New Listing to Pending Ratio now sits at 0.50 for the month, well below the 25-year historical average of 0.81. Year-to-date, this ratio is at 0.67, a clear indicator of suppressed buyer urgency. In practical terms, for every 100 homes listed, only 50 are going under contract this month—a pace of market activity that is insufficient to absorb current inventory levels.

Sales volume has also contracted. There were 2,528 closed sales reported for July so far, bringing the cumulative total from January to July to 17,576, a 6.4% drop from the same period last year. While this is 5.8% above the long-term average, the context is critical—2024 was already a slow year, and the current trend reflects a two-year sales drag. When normalized for population growth and agent count, the picture becomes even more stark. Sales per 100,000 residents are down 8.6% year-over-year and sit 21.9% below the long-term average. Likewise, the number of closed sales per 1,000 realtors is down 25.7% from historical norms.

Prices continue to correct. The median sold price in July 2025 is $465,000, representing a 15.45% decline from the May 2022 peak of $550,000. The average sold price now sits at $596,306, a 12.56% drop from its peak of $681,939. Tracking prices against levels from 36 months prior shows the market is now down 9.71% compared to mid-2022. Based on Austin’s long-term appreciation rate of 5.118%, it would take approximately 43 months, or until January 2029, to return to peak pricing, assuming consistent compounding and no further shocks.

Interestingly, the price compression has not affected all market segments equally. Properties in the top 25th percentile have experienced relatively mild declines: -0.31% in both total price and price per square foot. Meanwhile, homes in the bottom 25th percentile have seen price declines of nearly 5%, showing that the affordability tier is under more pressure as interest rates and monthly payment sensitivity continue to shape purchasing behavior.

Market confidence, as measured by proprietary metrics like the Market Health Index (MHI) and Inventory Stress Index (ISI), reinforces the buyer-friendly landscape. The MHI sits at 17.97%, well below the 30% threshold that typically defines a seller’s market. The ISI remains low at 5.35%, meaning buyers have a wide selection of properties and little pressure to act quickly—conditions that align with prolonged listing times and price concessions.

In summary, Austin’s housing market remains on the defensive. Record-high inventory, lagging pendings, falling prices, and muted buyer engagement paint a picture of a region undergoing a prolonged market correction. Sellers are adjusting, but buyer sentiment remains cautious, likely awaiting either further price relief or a clearer macroeconomic signal. If current trends persist, the road to recovery may stretch well into 2026 and beyond.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for June 16, 2025.​