Austin Housing Market Signals a Deepening Buyer’s Market Amid Elevated Inventory and Weakened Demand

Inventory Trends and Market Saturation : As of June 9, 2025, the Austin residential real estate market is exhibiting clear signs of a buyer-dominated environment. Active listings have reached a new cycle high of 17,541, surpassing the previous record of 17,377 set just ten days earlier on May 30. This steady rise in available inventory, paired with the fact that 53.4% of all active listings have undergone price reductions, highlights the pressure sellers are facing to remain competitive in a market with reduced buyer urgency. The current Months of Inventory now sits at 6.25, a significant increase from 5.20 one year ago, representing a 20.1% year-over-year jump. This measure signals a slowing absorption rate and a growing disconnect between supply and demand.

Demand Metrics: New Listings vs. Pending Sales : The year-to-date total of new listings has reached 26,288, which is 17.3% above the long-term historical average but still 4.7% below last year’s level, suggesting that while listing activity remains strong, it is tapering slightly compared to the prior year. Meanwhile, pending sales have dropped to 19,855 year-to-date, which is 18.0% lower than last year and 8.8% below the historical average. For early June, pending contracts total 4,664, a 3.2% decline compared to 4,819 during the same week in 2024. This divergence between new listings and pending activity has driven the Monthly New Listing to Pending Ratio down to 0.47, a figure well below the 2025 year-to-date average of 0.66 and substantially under the 25-year historical average of 0.81. This growing imbalance highlights a sharp decrease in transactional conversion and buyer momentum.

Activity and Market Engagement : The Activity Index, which tracks the share of listings that go under contract within a given timeframe, has fallen to 21.0%, a noticeable drop from 24.5% one year prior, representing a 14.4% decline. The Market Health Index sits at just 19.9%, falling below the 30% threshold typically used to define the onset of a buyer’s market. The Inventory Stress Index is equally telling, measuring only 6.8%, which is well below the 10% level that suggests significant advantage for buyers. Together, these indicators show a market that is not just experiencing softness, but one that is structurally shifting in favor of buyers as elevated inventory and weakening demand converge.

Sales Volume and Density : While headline sales numbers may appear moderate, their deeper context tells a different story. Total properties sold year-to-date now number 14,362, a 10.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. Although this figure is 4.1% above the historical average, the adjusted metrics are more sobering. Sales per 100,000 population are down 23.1% from the average and 12.2% lower year-over-year, while sales per 1,000 Realtors are down 27.1% compared to the long-term norm and 6.2% off from 2024 levels. These statistics confirm that fewer homes are being sold relative to both population growth and real estate agent activity, underlining the reduced transactional velocity and suggesting an oversupply of labor and listings compared to demand.

Pricing and Value Erosion : Median and average pricing data continue to reflect the correction from peak pandemic-era pricing. The average sold price now stands at $617,724, down 9.42% from the May 2022 high of $681,939. The median sold price is currently $465,000, representing a sharper 15.45% decline from its $550,000 peak. Compared to 36 months prior, the median price is still down 13.08%, highlighting the scope and persistence of the market’s retrenchment. Analyzing price changes by market tier shows that the bottom 25th percentile of homes experienced a 4.4% drop in sale price and a 3.7% drop in price per square foot. The top 25th percentile experienced a 2.3% price drop and a 3.6% reduction in price per square foot, indicating broad-based softening that spans across property types and price points.

Recovery Outlook : Using Austin’s 25-year historical annual compound appreciation rate of 5.118%, it is estimated that if the current median sold price of $465,000 represents the market bottom, it would take approximately 43 months, or until December 2028, to return to the previous peak value of $550,000. This forecast assumes steady recovery conditions with no major disruptions and is a reminder that while Austin remains a fundamentally strong housing market, it is not immune to long-term correction cycles and macroeconomic headwinds.

Geographical Variation in Price Appreciation : Price performance has varied across the Austin metro, with 11 tracked cities showing year-over-year gains in median sold prices, while 18 have seen declines. This geographic split illustrates that while the overall market is weakening, pockets of relative resilience still exist, often driven by hyperlocal demand factors such as schools, transit access, or constrained housing stock.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for June 09, 2025, with today's data.