Round Rock TX Home Prices Reset to Pre-2021 Levels

Round Rock Home Prices Reset to Pre-2021 Levels as the Austin Market Reverts to Its Long-Term Trend

The Austin real estate market is entering a new phase, and the data from Round Rock makes that shift unmistakably clear: home prices have fallen back to pre-2021 levels, erasing the pandemic-era surge and returning the market to a historically normal pricing range. This is not a sudden collapse or a temporary dip. It is a measurable reset driven by affordability limits, higher mortgage rates, and a return to long-term pricing fundamentals across the Austin housing market. For buyers, sellers, and investors tracking Austin home prices, Round Rock provides one of the cleanest examples of how the broader Austin property market is rebalancing after years of distortion.

From 2001 through 2020, Round Rock’s median sold price followed a steady and sustainable growth path. Prices rose gradually from approximately $149,000 in 2001 to $317,500 in 2020, reflecting an annual compound growth rate of roughly 3.8 percent. This pattern aligned with income growth, population expansion, and long-term housing demand in the Austin real estate market. Price increases during this period were consistent, predictable, and largely disconnected from speculation.

That pattern broke sharply in 2021. Median prices jumped to $450,000 in a single year, representing a 42 percent year-over-year increase. In 2022, prices peaked near $500,000, driven by ultra-low mortgage rates, excess liquidity, and buyer urgency rather than by fundamentals. The data shows this move clearly as an anomaly, not a continuation of the long-term Austin housing trend.

Since that peak, the correction has been steady and persistent. By 2024, the median sold price in Round Rock had declined to approximately $430,000. In 2025, it fell further to around $415,500. Early 2026 data now places the median near $389,950, representing a roughly 22 percent decline from the peak. This drop brings prices back into the same range where they would have landed had the 2021–2022 spike never occurred.

This is a key distinction for anyone following the Austin real estate forecast. The market is not overshooting downward. It is reverting to its historical trend line.

Sales volume supports this interpretation. Transaction counts surged during the peak years and have since declined meaningfully. Recent monthly data shows fewer than 60 sales in early 2026, compared to well over 150 transactions per month during stronger periods. Falling volume combined with declining prices signals active price discovery, not panic selling. Buyers are participating, but only at prices that match current payment realities.

Affordability is now the dominant constraint shaping the Austin housing market. While prices have come down, mortgage rates remain elevated compared to 2020 and 2021. Buyers are no longer anchored to peak prices; they are anchored to monthly payments. This shift explains why price recovery has stalled even as inventory clears. The market is functioning rationally again.

Importantly, this reset places Round Rock back in alignment with the broader Austin real estate trends seen across suburban markets. The rapid appreciation of 2021 did not permanently raise the pricing floor. Instead, it created a temporary ceiling that the market has spent the last three years correcting.

For sellers, this means pricing strategies must be grounded in current data, not peak-era expectations. Homes priced to 2022 comparables are no longer competitive and will struggle to attract qualified buyers. For buyers, the return to pre-2021 pricing bands represents improved leverage, clearer valuation signals, and reduced downside risk compared to the peak years.

From an analytical standpoint, the most important takeaway is stability. Once prices reconnect with long-term growth rates, volatility decreases. The Austin real estate market performs best when appreciation is driven by income growth, employment expansion, and demographic demand rather than by leverage and speculation. Round Rock’s data shows that process is already well underway.

Looking ahead, future appreciation in Round Rock and the broader Austin property market will depend on wage growth and affordability improvements, not on a return to the conditions that fueled the 2021 surge. That shift may feel uncomfortable for those anchored to peak pricing, but it represents a healthier and more sustainable Austin housing trend going forward.

Frequently Asked Questions

Have Round Rock home prices really returned to pre-2021 levels?

Yes. The median sold price in early 2026 is approximately $390,000, which aligns closely with the price trajectory that existed before the 2021 surge. When adjusted for the long-term growth rate, current prices are consistent with where the market would have landed without the pandemic-era spike.

Does this mean the Austin real estate market is crashing?

No. The data shows a normalization, not a crash. Prices are reverting to long-term trends while transaction volume adjusts to affordability conditions. This behavior is typical when markets correct excess appreciation rather than when they experience systemic stress.

Why did prices fall if Austin is still growing?

Population growth alone does not drive prices. Affordability, mortgage rates, and income growth determine what buyers can pay. While Austin continues to grow, higher borrowing costs have limited purchasing power, forcing prices to adjust downward.

Are buyers gaining leverage in the Austin housing market?

Yes. With prices off their peak and volume lower, buyers have more negotiating power than they did during 2021 and 2022. This is especially true for homes priced above current market-clearing levels.

What does this mean for the Austin real estate forecast?

Future appreciation is likely to be slower and more stable. Without rate suppression or excess liquidity, price growth will track income gains and economic fundamentals, creating a more predictable and sustainable market environment.