Austin Housing Market: Why the Freddie Mac Index Lags Behind Real Market Declines
When it comes to measuring home price trends, the Freddie Mac House Price Index (FMHPI®) is one of the most widely recognized benchmarks. It provides a month-by-month view of U.S. housing markets, built from repeat sales of single-family homes where loans were purchased or securitized by Freddie Mac. Because the data comes directly from mortgage transactions, it excludes cash sales, atypical financing, and private deals. That makes it consistent and reliable for identifying long-term patterns, but it also means it is a lagging indicator.
The September 30, 2025 update, which covers data through August, shows that Austin home prices are down 16.5 percent from the May 2022 peak. On a year-over-year basis, the index records a 2.8 percent decline, while most major metros across the U.S. are showing positive annual gains. By national standards, Austin is still one of the most corrected large housing markets.
However, FMHPI numbers do not tell the full story because they report nominal prices, not inflation-adjusted values. As of October 1, 2025, the median home price in Austin is $417,000, down from $550,000 at the May 2022 peak. That is a nominal decline of 24.18 percent, or $133,000. But when adjusted for inflation, the drop is far steeper at 31.60 percent, which equals $173,776. This gap between nominal and real price movements is what homeowners and buyers actually feel in their wallets. Inflation reduces purchasing power, so the real decline matters more when it comes to affordability, equity, and long-term value.

Freddie Mac’s index lags the market because it is built from closed mortgage transactions. That means it reflects deals signed 30 to 60 days earlier. It excludes cash purchases and non-conforming loans, which have made up a significant share of recent Austin transactions. It also does not account for seller concessions or buy-downs that lower the real cost to buyers.
In contrast, the Team Price Market Cycle data is updated daily using local MLS activity. It captures active listings, pending contracts, and price adjustments in real time. That makes it a far more accurate picture of where values actually stand today, while Freddie Mac is best understood as a confirmation tool for longer-term price cycles.
The takeaway is that Freddie Mac confirms the direction of the correction, but Austin’s real decline is even sharper when adjusted for inflation. To understand today’s reality, not last month’s, the daily market cycle data from Team Price provides the most accurate representation of how far the market has moved and where it stands right now.
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