House Price Trends Across the U.S.: Insights from the Freddie Mac Index

July 31, 2024 : The Freddie Mac House Price Index (FMHPI®) is an invaluable resource for anyone looking to understand the fluctuations and trends in the housing market across the United States. This index provides a clear picture of house price inflation, showing how prices have changed over time in different metropolitan areas. Updated monthly, the FMHPI® offers timely data that reflects the current state of the housing market.

From January 2020 to January 2021, cities like Atlanta and Austin saw substantial growth in house prices. For instance, Austin experienced an impressive increase of 43.9% by May 2022. However, this growth was followed by a sharp decline, with a 13.6% drop in house prices by June 2022. This kind of volatility highlights the dynamic nature of the housing market and the various factors that can influence it.

The latest data from June 2024 shows a wide range of performance across different metro areas. Miami stands out with a remarkable growth of 77.9% since January 2020, making it one of the top-performing cities. Tampa and Charlotte also showed strong growth, with increases of 75.0% and 72.3% respectively. On the other hand, Austin's growth was more moderate at 43.9%, indicating regional differences in market performance.

Year-over-year (YoY) changes provide a snapshot of how the housing market is performing on an annual basis. On average, there was a 5.1% increase in house prices across the metro areas included in the FMHPI®. Cities like Columbus, Detroit, and Cleveland saw significant YoY growth, surpassing the national average and highlighting their strong market performance.

Month-over-month (MoM) changes offer a short-term view of the housing market. The average MoM change was approximately 4.86%, showing how prices can fluctuate within a month. This metric is essential for understanding the immediate trends in the market and can help in making more informed decisions.

The FMHPI® also tracks the changes from peak price levels, offering insights into how the housing markets are recovering or continuing to decline after reaching their highest points. For example, cities like Austin, Phoenix, and San Francisco experienced notable declines from their peak values, reflecting specific market conditions and economic impacts.

Long-term trends are another critical aspect of the FMHPI®. The historical data spans several decades, from 1976 to 2024, showing periods of rapid growth and significant declines. This long-term perspective helps in understanding the overall direction of the housing market and predicting future movements.

The regional variations highlighted in the FMHPI® are particularly insightful. The Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown area in Texas saw diverse trends, with significant growth in the early 2020s followed by a notable decline. This area's year-over-year percentage differences provide a granular view of these fluctuations, helping to understand the market dynamics over time. Similarly, the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro area in Oregon-Washington reflected broader national patterns with its own set of fluctuations.

Austin's housing market has been particularly interesting to watch over the past few years. After experiencing a dramatic rise in house prices, reaching a peak growth of 43.9% by May 2022, the market took a sharp downturn. By June 2022, Austin saw a significant decline of 13.6%, indicating a market correction. This volatility continued into recent years, with fluctuations influenced by various economic factors, including changes in demand and supply, interest rates, and broader economic conditions. Despite these challenges, Austin remains a vibrant market with potential for future growth as it adjusts to new economic realities.

Top performers in the latest data include Miami, with a stunning 77.9% growth from January 2020, and Tampa, with a 75.0% increase. These cities showcase robust market growth, driven by various economic and demographic factors. On the other end of the spectrum, Austin experienced a significant drop of 13.6% from its peak, indicating potential market corrections or other influencing factors specific to that region.

Overall, the Freddie Mac House Price Index is a crucial tool for anyone involved in the real estate market. It provides comprehensive data that helps in understanding market trends, making informed decisions, and predicting future movements. The detailed regional analysis and historical data enable a deep understanding of the market's dynamics and future outlooks.​