Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI)

Report for August 2024: An In-Depth Look at Consumer Sentiment

September 12, 2024 : The housing market is a key indicator of economic health, and understanding consumer sentiment can help forecast future trends. Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) for August 2024 provides valuable insight into how Americans perceive the current housing market. This index is derived from six key components that gauge consumers' views on buying and selling homes, expectations for home prices and mortgage rates, and preferences between renting or buying. In August 2024, the HPSI was 72.1, reflecting a slight improvement in sentiment compared to earlier months of the year. Let’s dive into the details of the report, breaking down each of these components to understand the current state of the U.S. housing market:

Improvement in Overall Sentiment: In August 2024, the Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) rose to 72.1, a slight improvement from previous months of the year. While consumer sentiment has been fluctuating, this rise indicates a slow recovery in confidence. The index is calculated from six different factors that are vital to the housing market, reflecting the overall health of market perceptions. Despite ongoing challenges, such as high mortgage rates and affordability concerns, the HPSI suggests that Americans are becoming more optimistic about the housing market. However, this rise is modest, and the market still faces significant headwinds that are holding back stronger gains in sentiment.

Buying Sentiment Remains Low: Despite improvements in the overall index, consumer sentiment about buying a home remains weak. Only 17% of respondents in August 2024 felt that it was a good time to buy a home, while 83% felt that it was a bad time. This low buying sentiment is a continuation of a broader trend seen throughout 2023 and into 2024. High mortgage rates and rising home prices are making it difficult for potential buyers to afford homes, and many are choosing to wait for more favorable conditions. This pessimism around buying reflects the broader affordability crisis in the housing market, which continues to deter many would-be homeowners from entering the market.

Selling Sentiment is Relatively Strong: On the flip side, selling sentiment remains much stronger. In August 2024, 65% of respondents said it was a good time to sell, while 34% disagreed. This shows that sellers are benefiting from limited housing inventory, which has kept prices high. In many markets, sellers are able to command strong prices for their homes, making this an attractive time to list properties. However, the 34% who believe it's a bad time to sell suggests that some sellers may be cautious due to the same affordability issues that are impacting buyers. Overall, the strength in selling sentiment highlights the divide between those who already own homes and those looking to buy.

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Expectations for Home Prices: The outlook on home prices is mixed, with 37% of respondents in August 2024 expecting prices to rise, while 25% expect them to fall. This disparity in views reflects the uncertainty in the market. While limited supply and high demand in some areas are driving prices upward, rising mortgage rates and affordability issues are putting downward pressure on prices in other regions. The mixed expectations indicate that while home prices may continue to increase in some markets, other areas could see stabilization or even declines. These competing forces make predicting future price trends challenging, adding to the uncertainty for both buyers and sellers.

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Mortgage Rate Outlook: Mortgage rates continue to be a major concern for consumers. In August 2024, 26% of respondents believed that mortgage rates would rise, while 39% expected rates to go down.

Rent vs. Buy Preferences: Despite the challenges in the market, homeownership remains a strong aspiration for many Americans. When asked whether they would prefer to buy or rent if they were to move, 68% of respondents said they would buy, while 32% said they would rent. This shows that even with the current affordability issues, the desire to own a home is still prevalent. However, the significant portion of respondents preferring to rent suggests that many consumers are being forced into renting due to high home prices and mortgage rates. The split between renting and buying preferences highlights the ongoing affordability crisis that is preventing many from achieving homeownership.

Is It a Good Time to Buy or Sell? Based on the data from the August 2024 HPSI, the answer depends largely on your individual situation. For sellers, current market conditions present a favorable environment with 65% of consumers believing it’s a good time to sell. Low inventory and high demand in certain regions continue to push prices up, making it an opportune time for sellers to maximize their returns. On the other hand, buyers face a more challenging landscape. With only 17% of respondents saying it's a good time to buy, affordability concerns, driven by high mortgage rates and rising home prices, are making it difficult for many to make a move.

However, the decision ultimately depends on your personal circumstances, including financial readiness and long-term goals. If you're unsure how this data applies to your situation, it’s important to speak with a real estate professional who can help you navigate the market and provide guidance tailored to your needs. Contact us today with any specific questions to explore your best options in this complex housing market.