Austin Real Estate Report – Year-over-Year Inventory Growth by ZIP Code (October 2025)

Austin Real Estate Market Report – Year-over-Year Inventory Growth by ZIP Code (October 2025)

Inventory growth has become the defining story of Austin real estate in 2025. While overall supply has increased across the metro, the pace of change varies dramatically from one ZIP code to another — revealing a sharply segmented market. Some areas have nearly doubled their Months of Inventory (MOI) since last year, while others remain close to balanced. This ZIP-level breakdown highlights where Austin’s housing supply is rising fastest and where demand is holding firm.

Market Overview
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Across the Austin-Area MLS, Months of Inventory climbed from 5.28 to 5.82, a 10.3% year-over-year increase. That headline figure points to a cooling market, but the ZIP-level data shows that not all parts of Austin are cooling equally. High-growth corridors — particularly Northwest, Central, and Southwest Austin — experienced the steepest inventory increases, with several ZIPs crossing into buyer-friendly territory above six months of supply. Others, including many central and established suburban areas, remain closer to historical balance.

Top Inventory Growth ZIP Codes

The largest gains occurred in neighborhoods with a combination of new construction, slower absorption, and shifting affordability dynamics. 78726 (Northwest Austin) leads all ZIP codes, jumping from 3.83 to 6.63 months of inventory, a 72.8% increase. This area includes River Place and Canyon Creek — communities with active resale turnover and upper-tier pricing that’s adjusting to buyer expectations. 78705 (Central Austin/UT area) follows closely with a 70.2% increase, from 4.05 to 6.89 months, reflecting higher turnover and slower investor absorption around student housing and multifamily conversions. In 78739 (Southwest Austin), covering Circle C Ranch and Shady Hollow, inventory climbed from 1.54 to 2.60 months, a 69.0% rise, signaling a normalization in what had been one of Austin’s tightest suburban markets during the boom. Secondary growth areas include Lockhart (78644, +60.1%) and Del Valle (78617, +58.4%), where ongoing new construction is contributing to higher inventory counts relative to buyer activity.

Moderate Growth ZIP Codes

A wide group of ZIP codes saw moderate but still notable expansion between 30% and 50% year over year. This includes Jarrell (76537, +52.5%), East Austin (78702, +41.2%), and Hutto (78634, +35.2%). These areas represent the transition band between rapid expansion and stable equilibrium — communities where construction remains active, but buyer interest has cooled just enough to lengthen selling times. For buyers, these zones offer more selection and negotiating room than in previous years.

Balanced and Stable ZIPs

Meanwhile, several established submarkets showed only modest inventory increases — generally under 25%. These include 78756 (Central Austin, +24.3%), 78730 (Westlake area, +21.5%), 78641 (Leander, +18.6%), and 78745 (South Austin, +20.2%). These ZIPs tend to have tighter land constraints and higher owner-occupancy rates, which prevent sudden listing surges. Despite citywide cooling, these neighborhoods remain near historical balance, reflecting sustained buyer demand and limited new inventory.

Analyst Commentary

The key takeaway from this report is segmentation. The Austin real estate market can no longer be described as a single trend line. Instead, it’s splitting into distinct phases: oversupply in certain growth corridors and equilibrium in mature areas. Where inventory has surged beyond six months, buyers hold the advantage, gaining leverage through price negotiations and inspection contingencies that were nearly impossible two years ago. In stable ZIPs, however, homes priced correctly still move quickly — particularly under the $600,000 range where demand remains steady. This pattern illustrates Austin’s broader normalization after years of volatility. The market is cooling, but it’s not collapsing. Instead, it’s finding its long-term balance, ZIP code by ZIP code.

FAQ

1. What does “Months of Inventory” mean in the Austin housing market?

Months of Inventory measures how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current pace of sales. A six-month supply typically indicates a balanced market; anything above that suggests buyer leverage.

2. Which Austin ZIP codes have seen the fastest inventory growth in 2025?

The top performers are 78726, 78705, and 78739, with increases between 69% and 73%. Each saw a combination of new listings and slower absorption.

3. Are all parts of Austin becoming a buyer’s market?

No. While outer and growth-oriented ZIPs are seeing higher supply, core neighborhoods like 78756 and 78730 remain balanced. The citywide average masks strong differences between areas.

4. How does rising inventory affect home prices?

Higher inventory typically slows price appreciation or causes small declines. In ZIPs above six months of inventory, sellers are more likely to reduce prices or offer buyer incentives.

5. What does this mean for Austin’s 2026 real estate outlook?

Expect continued segmentation. Builders may pull back in oversupplied ZIPs, while established areas stabilize first. Once rates ease, absorption should rise, narrowing the gap between fast- and slow-moving submarkets.