Austin Real Estate Market Analysis: Pending Listings Show November Uptick But Year-to-Date Remains Weak

November 08, 2024 : The City of Austin’s real estate market has experienced a rollercoaster of changes in the past decade. Analyzing pending listings, which serve as a key indicator of market activity, we observe significant fluctuations from 2014 through 2024. This data offers valuable insights into seasonal trends, economic shifts, and the broader dynamics impacting homebuyers and sellers in Austin. Let’s take a closer look at how these numbers have changed over time, focusing on the recent performance and trends for November 2024, as well as a comprehensive comparison with previous years.

​

From January to November 2024, the number of pending listings in the City of Austin consistently lagged behind previous years. In fact, each month from January through June 2024 showed significantly lower figures than the strong market performance of 2021 and the recovery year of 2022. For example, June, a critical month for pending listings, had only 1,313 in 2024, down from 1,550 in 2023 and dramatically lower than the peak of 2,452 seen in June 2020. This decline highlights a cooling trend that became evident in late 2022 and persisted throughout 2023 and into the early months of 2024.

​

Despite a slow start, November 2024 marked a turning point for the Austin real estate market. This month reported 905 pending listings, making it the best November performance in three years. By comparison, November 2023 had only 869 pending listings, while November 2022 recorded 887. This increase, albeit modest, suggests a slight rebound in buyer activity as we head into the end of the year. It is still far below the levels seen in November 2021, which had an impressive 1,711 pending listings, demonstrating that while there may be signs of improvement, the market has not yet returned to its pre-slowdown strength.

​

Looking back at the entire year-to-date (YTD) data for 2024, the overall performance remains weak. January 2024 started off with 1,155 pending listings, nearly identical to the previous year's start at 1,157, yet substantially lower than the 1,709 pending listings seen in January 2020. The months of March through June, traditionally the most active period for pending listings, failed to regain momentum. March 2024 recorded only 1,551 pending listings, significantly below the 2,370 recorded in March 2021. Similarly, April 2024 saw a decline, with 1,565 pending listings compared to 2,175 in April 2021.

​

Seasonality plays a critical role in the Austin real estate market. Typically, the summer months show the highest levels of pending listings due to increased buyer activity. However, the summer of 2024 saw lower-than-expected performance. For instance, July 2024 reported just 1,245 pending listings, a notable drop from 1,438 in July 2023 and far below the 2,308 seen in July 2020. This decline indicates that the heightened buyer demand observed during the pandemic years has cooled off considerably, potentially due to changing economic conditions, higher interest rates, and shifts in buyer preferences.

​

As we move towards the end of the year, it’s essential to highlight the ongoing trend of lower pending listings across the board. While November 2024's 905 pending listings mark an improvement from the past two years, the year-to-date figures still reflect the lowest cumulative total in a decade. The year 2024 has been marked by a cautious market, where both buyers and sellers seem to be waiting on the sidelines, perhaps due to economic uncertainties and fluctuating mortgage rates.

​

December typically experiences the lowest levels of pending listings, and based on the trends observed throughout 2024, it’s likely that this year will follow suit. In December 2023, there were 907 pending listings, showing a slight increase compared to 846 in December 2022, but still far from the peak of 1,506 in December 2020. If this trend continues, we may see a similar outcome for December 2024, reinforcing the broader narrative of a market that has yet to fully recover.

In conclusion, the City of Austin’s pending listings data from 2014 to 2024 paints a picture of a market that surged during the pandemic years, experienced a strong recovery in 2021, but has since softened. November 2024 stands out as a relative bright spot, showing the highest number of pending listings for this month in three years. However, the overall year-to-date performance remains the weakest in the past decade, suggesting that the market still faces headwinds as we head into 2025. Continued monitoring of pending listings will be essential to gauge the direction of the Austin real estate market in the coming months.