Austin Real Estate Market Update: Shifting Back to a Seller's Market

November 09, 2024 : The Austin real estate market is showing significant signs of change as the latest data reveals a dip in the Months of Inventory (MOI) to 4.96. This shift marks a return to a seller's market, highlighting a balance tipped in favor of sellers after a period of higher inventory levels throughout much of 2023 and early 2024. The Months of Inventory is a crucial metric in real estate that measures how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current sales pace, and a figure below 5 months typically indicates strong demand, favoring sellers.

Over the past two decades, Austin's real estate market has experienced various cycles, from the stability of the mid-2000s to the turbulence of the financial crisis, and the booming seller's market during the pandemic years. Historically, the Austin area has seen MOI fluctuate based on broader economic trends, local housing demand, and changing interest rates. For context, during the financial crisis in 2009-2011, the MOI surged to levels as high as 8.6 months, reflecting a sharp drop in buyer demand and a significant increase in available listings. In stark contrast, the pandemic-driven market of 2020-2021 recorded some of the lowest inventory levels in history, with MOI dropping to as low as 0.7 months, driven by a surge in buyer demand and limited new listings.

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The current MOI of 4.96 suggests a market dynamic where demand is rising again, possibly due to more stable interest rates and a rebound in buyer confidence. This figure signals a shift back from the neutral and buyer-leaning market conditions observed earlier this year, where MOI was often above 5 months. The recent decline below the 5-month threshold suggests a tightening market where sellers have more leverage, and properties are moving at a quicker pace.

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In November 2024, the Austin area has 14,136 active residential listings, indicating a robust level of inventory compared to the peak crisis levels of 2010 but still below the highs of the past year. Despite the elevated inventory, the declining MOI points to increased absorption rates, which means that more buyers are entering the market, and properties are being sold at a faster rate. This change is significant because a higher absorption rate usually correlates with a decrease in the number of days properties spend on the market, often resulting in upward pressure on prices.

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The analysis of the market data from 2005 to 2024 reveals several key trends. From 2005 to 2008, the market was relatively stable, with MOI hovering around 4-5 months, which is consistent with a balanced market where supply and demand are nearly equal. However, the economic downturn in 2008 led to a sharp increase in inventory levels, peaking in mid-2010 at 8.6 months. This represented a strong buyer’s market, where the number of available homes far exceeded the demand, giving buyers considerable negotiating power.

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Following the recovery period from 2012 onwards, the Austin market experienced a gradual tightening. From 2012 to 2019, the MOI consistently stayed below 5 months, marking a prolonged seller’s market as the local economy strengthened and demand outpaced supply. This trend was further exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic, when record-low interest rates and heightened demand led to an unprecedented reduction in inventory, with MOI figures consistently below 2 months.

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In 2023 and early 2024, there was a noticeable shift, with inventory levels rising and the market moving toward a neutral stance. However, as of November 2024, the MOI’s drop to 4.96 indicates a resurgence of buyer activity. This suggests that buyers are adjusting to the current mortgage rates, and many are capitalizing on the relative affordability improvements compared to the price peaks seen during the height of the pandemic boom.

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The market's current conditions align with trends seen in 2013-2014, where MOI hovered around 4-5 months, indicating a slightly seller-favored environment. Unlike that period, however, the macroeconomic landscape today includes higher interest rates, which have been a major factor affecting affordability and buyer sentiment. Despite these challenges, the sustained demand and strong absorption rates reflect a resilient housing market supported by ongoing in-migration, strong employment figures, and a robust local economy in Austin.

Looking ahead, the months of November and December often see seasonal slowdowns, but if the current trend of declining MOI persists, it may point to stronger underlying demand heading into early 2025. The ongoing absorption of inventory, coupled with stable demand, could result in increased competition among buyers, especially if the Federal Reserve signals any potential adjustments to interest rates. The upcoming months will be critical to observe as these factors play out, shaping the market dynamics for the new year.

Overall, the latest data shows that the Austin real estate market is making a notable shift back towards a seller’s market. The MOI at 4.96 indicates strong buyer activity and a tightening of supply, which could lead to stabilizing or even rising home prices in the near future. This change, while subtle, may signal the beginning of a new phase in the Austin housing market cycle.