Austin Real Estate Market Update: Highest Inventory Levels Since 2011

June 15, 2024 : The Austin real estate market is currently experiencing a significant shift, with inventory levels reaching their highest since October 2011. This change in the market dynamics is evident from the data on active listings and sold properties from 2005 to 2024. By analyzing this data, we can gain a comprehensive understanding of the current trends and their implications for buyers and sellers in the Austin area. In June 2024, the number of active residential listings soared to 15,437. This is a substantial increase from the previous years, reflecting a dramatic rise in inventory. To put this into perspective, the active listings in June 2021 were only 4,913, demonstrating a significant increase in just three years. The last time we saw such high numbers was in June 2010, when active listings reached 14,197. This surge in listings indicates that more properties are entering the market, which could signal a shift towards a buyer’s market.

The trend in active listings shows fluctuations over the years, with notable peaks during mid-year months. For instance, June 2008 had 13,364 active listings, and June 2024 surpassed this with the highest count of 15,437. This increase can be attributed to various factors, including new housing developments and changes in economic conditions that may have prompted more homeowners to sell their properties. On the other hand, the sold data reveals that the number of properties sold has also seen changes, although not as dramatic as the increase in active listings. In June 2024, 3,300 properties were sold, compared to 4,660 in June 2021. This decline in sales figures, despite the high inventory, suggests a potential cooling in buyer activity. It is essential to consider how this trend affects the overall market, particularly in balancing supply and demand. Analyzing the data from previous years, we see that the number of properties sold tends to peak in mid-year months. For example, in June 2021, 4,660 properties were sold, which was the highest for that year. Similar peaks are observed in other years, such as June 2020 with 4,323 sales and June 2019 with 3,928 sales. This seasonal pattern indicates a consistent trend where more transactions occur during the summer months.

Another crucial metric to consider is the Months of Inventory (MOI), which represents the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the present sales pace. In 2024, the MOI stands at 5.3 months, indicating a neutral market. Historically, an MOI of less than 4.9 months signifies a seller’s market, while an MOI of more than 7 months indicates a buyer’s market. The current MOI suggests that the market is balanced but leaning slightly towards buyers due to the high inventory levels.

The data from the past two decades highlights significant shifts in the Austin real estate market. From the low inventory and high sales during the pandemic-driven boom in 2020 and 2021 to the current high inventory and lower sales, the market dynamics have evolved considerably. These changes reflect broader economic trends, including interest rate adjustments, housing policies, and demographic shifts influencing the real estate landscape. Understanding these trends is crucial for both buyers and sellers. For buyers, the high inventory levels mean more options and potentially better deals as sellers may be more willing to negotiate. For sellers, it is essential to price properties competitively and be prepared for longer times on the market. Keeping an eye on these metrics will help market participants make informed decisions.

As we move forward, monitoring inventory levels, sales data, and MOI will be vital in predicting future trends and understanding the Austin real estate market's trajectory. The current data provides a snapshot of a market in transition, offering opportunities and challenges for everyone involved. This article is based on data published on June 15, 2024. Real estate statistics are constantly evolving. For the most current data and analysis, please refer to the following resources, updated weekly: Austin-Area Market Update