Austin Real Estate Trends: Withdrawn and Expired Listings Shape Market Inventory in 2024

November 01, 2024 : The Austin real estate market has seen a significant shift in recent months, with inventory levels falling below 5 months for the first time since May 2024. This decrease in available housing inventory reflects dynamic changes in market behavior and supply adjustments, particularly due to a rise in withdrawn and expired listings across the six-county Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which includes Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Hays, Caldwell, and Burnet counties.

Inventory trends have shown considerable fluctuation in 2024. The year began with a relatively low inventory of around 3.4 months, a level often associated with a balanced real estate market. As the spring months progressed, inventory levels began to increase, hitting 4.0 months in early April and climbing consistently through May, ultimately reaching 5.38 months in June. This rise signaled a cooling market, where new listings outpaced buyer demand, leading to slower absorption rates and a buildup of active properties. However, as the summer and early fall months unfolded, the Austin MSA experienced a different trend: a sharp increase in the number of listings withdrawn from the market or allowed to expire without a sale, directly impacting the months of inventory.

In October 2024 alone, there were 1,036 withdrawn listings and 652 expired listings in the Austin MSA, a significant rise compared to earlier months. For comparison, January 2024 saw 585 withdrawn and 410 expired listings. This substantial growth in withdrawn and expired listings suggests that sellers are increasingly cautious about market conditions. This pattern first became prominent in the summer, with July seeing nearly 1,000 withdrawn listings and August reaching 1,085, coupled with rising expired listings that peaked in September at 679. As a result, many sellers opted to pull their homes from the market rather than leave them available without securing offers, a trend that continued through October.

While the Austin area has witnessed a slight increase in pending sales year-over-year, the significant rise in withdrawn and expired listings has played a larger role in shaping the current market inventory. This combination of stable demand and decreasing active listings has brought months of inventory down to 4.97 in November, a notable change from the highs seen earlier in the year. In addition to indicating a potentially more competitive market for buyers, this decrease in months of inventory reflects a shift from the cooling conditions of the summer months, as the number of properties available for sale declines.

From an annual perspective, 2024’s average months of inventory has been 16.1% higher than 2023, signaling a generally higher inventory throughout the year. However, the recent decline suggests that supply may become increasingly limited as the market heads toward the end of the year. October's rise in withdrawn and expired listings has clearly impacted the months of inventory, with sellers showing reluctance to keep listings active during uncertain conditions. The number of listings pulled from the market reflects both sellers' cautious approach and the broader seasonal cycles that typically affect real estate activity in the fall.

As the Austin MSA real estate market closes the year, the trend toward lower inventory levels could have multiple implications for buyers, sellers, and the market as a whole. Fewer homes on the market can lead to increased competition among buyers, while sellers may face renewed confidence if inventory continues to decline. By tracking months of inventory, active listings, and the status of withdrawn and expired properties, both buyers and sellers in the Austin area can gain a clearer understanding of current market cycles and trends. With the months of inventory now below 5 months, the Austin real estate market stands at a pivotal moment, one marked by shifting supply and demand dynamics that will likely influence decisions moving into 2025.