Why Austin Home Prices Fell 21.3%: A Decade of Real Estate Data

September 26, 2024 : The City of Austin real estate market has experienced significant changes over the past decade, with a notable rise and subsequent correction in the average sold price per square foot. From 2014 to 2024, the price of homes in Austin has shown both steady growth and moments of rapid appreciation, followed by a marked decline in recent years.

In 2014, the average sold price per square foot in Austin was $172. Over the next several years, prices increased gradually, reflecting healthy market growth. By 2019, the average price had risen to $239 per square foot, signaling strong demand in the Austin area. However, it was the period from 2020 to 2022 when the market saw a dramatic surge, driven by factors such as historically low interest rates and increased housing demand.

The most significant rise occurred in 2021 and 2022. In May 2022, the average sold price per square foot peaked at $442, marking the highest point in Austin's real estate history. This sharp increase represented a surge of over 85% in just a few short years, as prices climbed from $239 per square foot in 2019 to $442 per square foot in May 2022. Many buyers were priced out of the market during this period, as the rapid appreciation made homes less affordable.

However, as is often the case in overheated markets, a correction followed. After reaching its peak in May 2022, Austin’s real estate prices began to decline. By September 2024, the average sold price per square foot dropped to $348, representing a 21.3% decrease from the market peak. This decline is indicative of the natural market cycle, where prices begin to correct after a period of unsustainable growth.

This correction can also be seen when comparing prices across specific months. For instance, the average price in January 2024 was $337 per square foot, a noticeable drop from $385 per square foot in January 2022. Similarly, in March 2024, the price was $361 per square foot, compared to $416 per square foot in March 2022. These numbers clearly reflect the downward trend as the market stabilizes after the extreme price hikes seen during the pandemic boom.

While the recent drop in prices may seem concerning to some, it is important to consider the overall long-term growth of Austin’s real estate market. Even with the recent decline, the average sold price per square foot is still significantly higher than it was in the mid-2010s. In September 2014, the average price was $190 per square foot, meaning the current price of $348 represents an increase of over 83% over the last decade.

This pattern of rising prices followed by a correction aligns with the concept of mean regression in real estate. As prices skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022, they moved far above the historical trend line. The current price adjustments reflect a reversion to the mean, where the market returns to more sustainable levels in line with long-term growth trends.

As Austin continues to grow, its real estate market remains robust, despite the recent corrections. Buyers and sellers in the Austin area should understand these trends and the historical context when considering current pricing. The market is adjusting after a period of unprecedented growth, and while prices are down from their peak, the long-term outlook remains positive for those who are considering entering or exiting the market.​