Leasing Market Trends: A Detailed Analysis of Seasonal Shifts and Price Changes

The leasing market over the past two years has shown significant changes in activity levels and rental prices, highlighting clear seasonal trends and shifts influenced by broader economic factors. By examining the Austin Lease Market Cycle data from December 2022 to December 2024, patterns emerge that help understand how leasing demand and prices fluctuate throughout the year.

In December 2022, the number of leased properties stood at 1,692, with an average leased price of $2,413 and a median leased price of $2,200. Leasing activity saw a steady rise into January 2023, with 1,885 properties leased, representing an 11.4% increase from the previous month. During this period, average leased prices increased to $2,472, showing a $59 rise. The median leased price remained stable at $2,200. This upward trend continued in February 2023, despite a slight dip in leasing activity to 1,845 properties, a 2.1% month-over-month decrease.

March 2023 saw a substantial jump in leasing activity, reaching 2,156 properties leased, a 16.9% increase compared to February. Prices remained relatively flat, with the average leased price at $2,460 and the median price holding at $2,250. The market maintained strong demand into April 2023, with 2,275 properties leased and average prices increasing to $2,510. This growth persisted into May and June 2023, where leasing numbers peaked at 3,165 in June, marking a 16.9% month-over-month increase. Average leased prices during June reached $2,547, the highest in the first half of 2023.

The summer months continued to see strong leasing demand, with July 2023 recording 3,201 leased properties. However, prices began to decline slightly, with the average leased price falling to $2,520. August 2023 marked the beginning of a downward trend in leasing activity, with a 9.3% drop, bringing the total to 2,904 properties. Average prices also fell to $2,476. This decline continued into September 2023, with leasing activity dropping to 2,419 properties, a significant 16.7% decrease from August. Prices dipped to $2,442, while the median price fell to $2,200.

The market saw further reductions in October and November 2023, with leased properties totaling 2,210 and 2,025, respectively. By December 2023, leasing activity reached a low point of 1,896 properties, reflecting a 6.4% decrease from the previous month. The average leased price stood at $2,379, a slight recovery of $15 from November, while the median leased price dropped to $2,150.

In January 2024, the market stabilized with 1,900 properties leased, showing a minimal 0.2% increase from December. Average prices held steady at $2,379, while the median price rose slightly to $2,195. February 2024 saw leasing activity jump to 2,173 properties, a 14.4% increase, reflecting the seasonal trend of higher demand early in the year. Prices also rose to an average of $2,427, although the median price declined to $2,195.

Leasing demand remained strong in March and April 2024, with 2,315 and 2,490 properties leased, respectively. The average leased price in April increased to $2,478, consistent with seasonal growth patterns. May 2024 continued this trend, with 2,750 properties leased and average prices climbing to $2,520. June 2024 mirrored the previous year’s peak, with 3,053 properties leased and an average price of $2,509.

However, the market began to show signs of slowing down in the second half of 2024. By July 2024, leasing activity increased only slightly to 3,244 properties, while the average leased price fell to $2,469. August 2024 saw a drop in leasing to 3,076 properties, a 5.2% decline, and average prices dipped to $2,364. This trend continued through September 2024, with leasing activity falling sharply to 2,437 properties, a 20.8% decrease. Prices also dropped to $2,296.

The final months of 2024 reflected a continued slowdown in leasing demand. October 2024 recorded 2,327 leased properties, a modest improvement from September, but average prices remained low at $2,311. By November, leasing numbers fell to 2,103, with prices averaging $2,304. December 2024 closed the year with 1,990 properties leased and an average leased price of $2,335.

These data points illustrate the clear seasonal patterns in leasing demand, with peaks occurring in the summer months and dips during the winter. Average and median leased prices followed these trends closely, reflecting the balance between supply and demand. While prices remained relatively stable, the slight declines towards the end of 2024 suggest a market adjusting to broader economic conditions or increased rental supply. Understanding these trends helps both renters and property owners make informed decisions based on the time of year and current market conditions​