May 28, 2024 : In the Austin real estate market, understanding leading and lagging indicators is crucial for predicting future trends. Leading indicators, such as the activity index and the new listing to pending ratio, provide early signals about the market's direction. Meanwhile, lagging indicators, like the median sold price, reflect changes after they have already occurred.
In March 2024, the activity index, which is calculated by dividing the number of pending properties by the total of active and pending properties, peaked at 30.78%. This peak signaled a high level of market activity. However, since the third week of March, this index has been on a downward trend, currently standing at 26.1%. This decline suggests that fewer properties are moving from active to pending status, indicating a slowdown in market activity.

Similarly, the new listing to pending ratio has been decreasing steadily. In February 2024, the ratio was 0.81, meaning that for every new listing, there were 0.81 pending sales. By March 2024, this ratio had dropped to 0.76. The downward trend continued in April 2024, reaching 0.71, and it currently stands at 0.62 in May 2024. This ratio provides insight into the balance between new properties entering the market and those being absorbed through sales. A declining ratio indicates that the rate of new listings is outpacing the rate of pending sales, contributing to increased inventory and potential downward pressure on prices.

Looking at lagging indicators, the median sold price compared to 36 months prior provides a long-term view of price trends. Historically, the Austin market has seen significant growth, such as the 74.39% increase from April 2019 to April 2022. However, recent data reveals a shift. As of May 2024, the median sold price compared to May 2021 has declined by 0.22%. This marks the first negative change since October 2011, when the median sold price compared to October 2008 was down by 0.78%. This recent decline indicates that the market is experiencing a period of adjustment, with prices leveling off or decreasing after years of growth.

This combination of leading and lagging indicators provides a comprehensive picture of the current state of the Austin real estate market. The decreasing activity index and new listing to pending ratio suggest a cooling market, while the negative change in the median sold price compared to 36 months prior underscores this trend. Real estate professionals and potential buyers should consider these indicators when making decisions, as they offer valuable insights into the market's trajectory. This article is based on data published on May 28, 2024. Real estate statistics are constantly evolving. For the most current data and analysis, please refer to the following resources, updated weekly:
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