Austin Home Prices Fall to Early 2021 Levels: January 2025 Market Analysis

The Austin real estate market continues to shift as the median sold price for January 2025 dropped to $399,990, marking the lowest level since February 2021. This represents a 4.8% decrease from January 2024, when the median price was $420,000, and a 3.7% decline from January 2023. The ongoing downward trend highlights a significant cooling from the record highs seen in 2021 and 2022.

The peak of the Austin housing market occurred in May 2022, when the median sold price reached an all-time high of $538,000. Since then, the market has experienced a substantial correction, with prices declining by $138,010, or 25.7%. This correction suggests that home values have adjusted to changing economic conditions, particularly as higher mortgage rates have reduced affordability for many buyers.

Despite recent declines, home prices in Austin remain higher than they were before the pandemic-driven market surge. In January 2020, the median sold price was $299,291, meaning home values have increased by 33.6% over the past five years. However, the rapid growth seen in 2021 and 2022 has largely been erased. Compared to January 2021, when the median price was $359,487, prices are now just 11.4% higher. This data indicates that the Austin housing market has returned to a more sustainable trajectory after years of extreme volatility.

Looking at longer-term trends, the median sold price in January 2015 was $236,000. Over the past decade, Austin home prices have increased by 69.5%, reinforcing the region’s long-term growth despite recent market adjustments. The annual appreciation rate from 2015 to 2020 averaged 5.7%, but this rate accelerated dramatically during the pandemic housing boom before returning to more stable levels in 2023 and 2024.

Month-over-month data further illustrates the market’s cooling trend. In February 2024, the median sold price was $430,000, slightly higher than January’s $420,000, but the following months saw gradual declines. By September 2024, prices had fallen to $418,000, and in December 2024, the median sold price was $435,000. The steady decrease suggests that Austin’s housing market has been adjusting to new economic conditions rather than experiencing a sudden crash.

Affordability remains a key factor in these market adjustments. Rising mortgage rates have significantly impacted buyer purchasing power, leading to a slowdown in demand. In contrast to the intense competition and multiple-offer scenarios seen in 2021 and early 2022, buyers in today’s market have more negotiating power. Inventory levels have also increased, allowing for greater selection and reducing the urgency to buy immediately. These factors combined have contributed to the decline in median sold prices.

Although prices have fallen from their peak, Austin’s real estate market remains strong in the long term. The city continues to attract new residents, and demand for housing persists, particularly as the broader economy stabilizes. If mortgage rates begin to decrease later in 2025, buyer confidence may improve, leading to renewed demand and potential price stabilization.

For now, the data shows that Austin home prices have returned to early 2021 levels, offering a more balanced market for buyers and sellers alike. As the year progresses, the market’s direction will depend on interest rates, inventory levels, and economic conditions. While uncertainty remains, the current trend indicates that Austin’s housing market is finding a new equilibrium after years of rapid change. 

​

​