Austin Housing Market Forecast: Why Buyers Are Likely to Maintain Leverage Through 2026

Austin Housing Market Forecast: Why Buyers Are Likely to Maintain Leverage Through 2026

The Austin housing market is entering a period of transition marked by elevated inventory levels and shifting supply-demand dynamics. Recent data from Team Price Real Estate shows that the gap between active listings and pending listings in the six-county Austin area reached a 20-year high in June 2025. This metric, which isolates true available inventory by subtracting pending contracts from total active listings, climbed to 12,605 last month. To put that figure into perspective, the previous peak was recorded during the post-financial crisis slowdown in 2010, when the active-minus-pending number reached 11,429.

The significance of this record-high inventory cannot be overstated. It reflects a market where supply has far outpaced current buyer demand, resulting in a buildup of homes that remain unsold and uncommitted. For buyers, this creates favorable conditions characterized by increased negotiation power, price flexibility, and more time to make decisions.

A review of historical market patterns shows that when inventory levels of this magnitude occur, the market rarely corrects quickly. During the last comparable period from 2008 to 2011, Austin experienced a multi-year phase of elevated inventory and buyer-friendly conditions before the market gradually stabilized. Based on these historical trends and current data, it is reasonable to anticipate that buyers will continue to maintain leverage in the Austin real estate market through at least the next 12 to 18 months.

One of the key factors driving this trend is affordability. Home prices in Austin surged during the pandemic housing boom, fueled by historically low mortgage rates, population growth, and supply shortages. However, as mortgage rates climbed significantly in 2023 and 2024, affordability challenges mounted. Many buyers found themselves priced out or hesitant to enter the market, resulting in a sharp slowdown in pending sales and an accumulation of available homes.

This is further reflected in the active-minus-pending data, which shows a 164% increase in this gap over the past three years. In June 2022, the difference stood at 4,774. By June 2024, it had more than doubled to 9,982, and by June 2025, it surpassed 12,600, marking the highest figure recorded in over two decades. Such rapid inventory expansion, without corresponding growth in pending contracts, indicates a market correction that is still underway.

Buyers considering entering the market today have more options and less competition than at any time since 2011. The elevated inventory levels have begun to soften prices across various segments of the market, while sellers are increasingly offering concessions or adjusting list prices to attract buyers. This is particularly true for resale properties competing with new construction, where builders continue to offer incentives to move inventory.

While predicting exact market timelines is always complex, the current trajectory suggests that market conditions will continue to favor buyers through much of 2026. Unless there is a substantial shift in mortgage rates, affordability, or population growth, it is unlikely that the inventory surplus will resolve quickly. In similar cycles, the Austin market has required at least 12 to 18 months to absorb excess supply and restore balance.

It is also important to note that conditions may vary across different submarkets and price ranges. Entry-level housing, suburban areas, and luxury properties may experience distinct dynamics. However, the overall trend of elevated active inventory relative to pending sales remains consistent across the six-county region.

For those considering buying a home in Austin, the current environment offers a rare opportunity to negotiate favorable terms, secure concessions, and avoid the fast-paced, competitive conditions that dominated the market just a few years ago. With the active-minus-pending gap at record highs and buyer demand yet to rebound meaningfully, market leverage remains firmly on the side of buyers for the foreseeable future.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Austin Housing Market Forecast

How long will the Austin housing market favor buyers?

Based on current inventory levels and historical trends, buyer-friendly conditions in the Austin market are expected to persist through at least the next 12 to 18 months. Elevated active listings combined with subdued pending sales indicate a market correction that typically requires over a year to stabilize.

Is now a good time to buy a home in Austin?

For buyers seeking more options, reduced competition, and potential price flexibility, current market conditions offer favorable opportunities. With inventory at a 20-year high and sellers increasingly open to concessions, many buyers are finding more negotiating power than in recent years.

What is the Active Minus Pending Listings metric?

This metric subtracts pending listings (homes under contract) from total active listings to isolate inventory that is truly available. It provides a clear measure of market supply relative to demand. In June 2025, this figure reached 12,605, the highest level recorded in over 20 years.

Are home prices still falling in Austin?

Austin home prices have corrected from their pandemic-era peaks, with many areas seeing price declines. The extent of price adjustments varies by submarket and price range. Elevated inventory levels suggest that further price softening is possible, particularly if demand remains subdued.

Could mortgage rates impact the Austin housing market forecast?

Yes. A significant decline in mortgage rates could stimulate buyer demand, which may reduce inventory levels and shift market dynamics. However, unless such a rate reduction occurs, affordability constraints are likely to continue limiting buyer activity and supporting a buyer-friendly environment.​