Cedar Park, Round Rock and Austin Home Prices, City Data May 2026

Cedar Park, Round Rock and Austin Home Prices,
City Data May 2026

Austin Real Estate Market Update May 28, 2026 | Daily Briefing

The Austin housing market is telling two very different stories at once, and the gap between them is where the real opportunity lives. On the surface, the numbers look soft. There are 16,865 active residential listings across the metro right now, and more than half of them, 51.1 percent, have already cut their price at least once. The current median sold price of $451,910 sits a painful 17.83 percent below the May 2022 peak of $550,000. For anyone watching only the headlines, that reads like a market in retreat. But the austin real estate picture is more interesting once you look at where demand is actually moving, because the leading indicators are pointing in a direction the lagging price data has not caught up to yet.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for May 28, 2026.

Start with pending contracts, which are the best early read on buyer demand. Pending listings now sit at 5,281, up 6.8 percent from the 4,947 we saw at this point last year. Pending sales are a leading indicator, meaning they tell us what buyers are doing today, while sold prices reflect deals that were negotiated weeks or even months ago. When pendings rise year over year like this, it signals that buyers are stepping back into the market even while the median price still shows last cycle's weakness. That is exactly the kind of split any serious austin housing forecast has to account for.

Inventory is the other half of the story. At 16,865 active listings, supply is down 2.05 percent from last year's 17,218 and sits 1,281 homes below the June 2025 peak. Months of Inventory, which measures how long it would take to sell every active home at the current sales pace, has dropped to 5.87 from 6.13 a year ago, a 4.3 percent improvement for sellers. The metro-wide read here is a Neutral Zone leaning balanced, not a buyer free fall. Of the 30 cities we track on the resale side, 26 show higher inventory than two years ago, but the year-over-year picture is far more even, with 14 cities higher and 16 actually lower. That mix matters because it shows the correction is maturing rather than deepening.

Because today is a city and suburb focused update, the local spread is worth your attention. This is where austin housing stops being one market and becomes thirty. Cedar Park is one of the tightest submarkets in the metro, running just 3.47 months of inventory and a 30.0 percent Activity Index, both signs of healthy demand. Round Rock is close behind at 3.46 months and a 28.2 percent Activity Index. Buda, at 3.80 months, also leans toward sellers. On the other end, Bastrop sits at 12.35 months, Lago Vista at 11.23, and Burnet at 11.89, all firmly in buyer-control territory where patient buyers can negotiate hard. The Sellers per Buyer ratio for the entire MLS is 3.0, classified as balanced, but the suburb-level swing from Cedar Park's strength to Bastrop's softness is the whole point. A metro average hides the deal.

The price tier data adds another layer worth understanding. The most affordable homes are moving the fastest. Properties between $200,000 and $400,000 carry Activity Index readings near 26 to 30 percent and months of inventory in the mid-4s, while homes above $1.5 million sit on the market far longer, with some tiers showing 11 or more months of supply and price cuts north of $100,000. For buyers shopping the upper end, this is a real estate forecast that favors your negotiating position. For sellers in that range, pricing right the first time has never mattered more.

It also helps to understand a quirk in how the median behaves inside a single month. Higher-priced homes tend to close in the first third of the month, while more affordable homes close in the final ten days. That pattern can pull the reported median around in ways that have nothing to do with the underlying trend, so it is smart to watch the direction over several months rather than react to a single print. On that longer view, the median sold price tracked against 36 months prior is down just 1.97 percent, which is a far gentler picture than the peak-to-now drop suggests.

For investors, the absorption rate is the metric to study. It currently reads 16.20 percent, meaning roughly that share of active inventory is selling in the measured period. That is well below the historical average of 31.35 percent, which tells you the market is still moving slower than its long-run norm. The Market Flow Score, which blends four turnover measures into one efficiency gauge, sits at 3.92 against a historical average of 6.55. Both readings confirm that while demand is improving at the margin, this is not a hot market, and nobody should pretend it is. Any honest austin real estate forecast has to hold those two facts together, improving demand and still-sluggish overall turnover.

This is also where discipline matters. We do not call a shift from correction to recovery until we see four consecutive months of improvement in the same direction. Pending demand is encouraging and inventory is tightening, but one or two strong readings are not a trend. The responsible read today is a market that is firming, not one that has turned the corner. The month-end projected comparisons drawn from our historical data tables remain the authoritative source for those longer-term shifts, and they are distinct from the live MLS counts that move day to day.

For real estate agents, the message is about precision. The metro story is balanced, but your clients do not buy or sell the metro. They buy in Cedar Park or Kyle or Georgetown, and those submarkets range from seller-friendly to deeply buyer-friendly. Knowing that 51.1 percent of listings have cut price, that the median list-to-sold ratio is holding near 97.8 percent, and that homes are going pending in a median of just 7 days tells you the well-priced homes still move fast while the overpriced ones sit. That is the conversation that wins listings right now.

Looking ahead, the longer-term projection still points to a gradual climb. Using the metro's 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.802 percent and assuming the current median marks the bottom, it would take roughly 52 months, or about August 2030, to return to the prior peak. That is not a quick recovery, but it is a steady one, and it frames why so many buyers see today's prices as an entry point rather than a warning. You can find the Austin Daily Real Estate at teamprice.com/austin-daily-real-estate-briefing for the complete archive of daily market data.

The bottom line for this austin market update is simple. Demand is quietly improving, inventory is tightening, and prices remain well below peak, which is an unusual and often favorable combination for prepared buyers and well-advised sellers alike.

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FAQ SECTION

Is now a good time to buy a home in Austin?

For a prepared buyer, the current Austin market offers real advantages that were not available a few years ago. The median sold price of $451,910 is 17.83 percent below the May 2022 peak of $550,000, and 51.1 percent of active listings have already cut their price at least once, which gives buyers meaningful room to negotiate. At the same time, pending contracts are up 6.8 percent year over year, so demand is firming and the window of maximum leverage may not stay open forever. The smart move is to focus on submarkets that still favor buyers, like Bastrop at 12.35 months of inventory, while acting decisively on well-priced homes that are going pending in a median of just 7 days.

Are home prices dropping in Austin Texas?

Prices are down significantly from their peak, but the rate of decline has slowed considerably. The current median sold price of $451,910 represents a 17.83 percent drop from the May 2022 high of $550,000, and the average sold price of $603,549 is off 11.50 percent from its own peak. However, when you track the median against where it stood 36 months ago, the figure is down only 1.97 percent, which shows the steep declines are largely behind us. Prices are softer than peak but appear to be stabilizing rather than falling sharply, which is an important distinction for both buyers and sellers.

What is the Austin housing market forecast for 2026?

The data points to a market that is slowly firming on the demand side while prices stay well below peak. Pending contracts are up 6.8 percent year over year to 5,281, the Activity Index has improved to 23.8 percent from 22.3 percent, and Months of Inventory has eased to 5.87 from 6.13, all signs of strengthening demand. That said, the absorption rate of 16.20 percent and Market Flow Score of 3.92 both sit well below their historical averages of 31.35 percent and 6.55, so overall turnover remains sluggish. We do not call a true shift from correction to recovery until we see four consecutive months of improvement, so the responsible 2026 forecast is a market that is firming and balanced, not one that has fully turned the corner.

How does Austin inventory compare to historical levels?

Current inventory of 16,865 active listings is actually down 2.05 percent from last year's 17,218 and sits 1,281 homes below the June 2025 peak of 18,146. That makes today's supply lower than a year ago, which surprises many people who assume inventory is still climbing. However, when you look back two years, 26 of the 30 cities we track show higher inventory than May 2024, so supply is still elevated compared to the very tight pandemic era. The takeaway is that inventory has come off its recent highs but remains far healthier for buyers than the historically thin supply of 2021 and early 2022.

Which Austin cities have the most price drops right now?

Price softness varies widely by city, and the year-over-year median data tells the clearest story. Among the cities we track, Marble Falls shows one of the steepest year-over-year median declines at 17.7 percent, while Elgin is down 8.4 percent and San Marcos is off 8.3 percent. On a peak-to-now basis, Marble Falls is down 39.5 percent and several outer suburbs like Buda and Spicewood sit 24 percent below their highs. By contrast, a handful of cities including Wimberley, Lago Vista, and Smithville are actually up year over year, which again proves that Austin is not one market but many, and the best deals depend entirely on which submarket you are shopping.

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Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

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