A Detailed Look at Austin's Pending Property Market from 2000 to 2024

July 09, 2024 : The Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area has experienced significant shifts in its real estate market over the past two decades. By examining cumulative pending properties from January to July for each year between 2000 and 2024, we gain valuable insights into the market’s evolution, trends, and fluctuations.

In the year 2000, the number of pending properties was recorded at 16,167. This marked the beginning of a period of growth that saw some variations but overall demonstrated a trend towards increasing market activity. By 2001, the pending properties slightly decreased to 14,845, representing a 8.2% decline from the previous year. This decline continued marginally into 2002, with pending properties numbering 14,764, a small drop of 0.5%.

The year 2003 saw a recovery, with pending properties increasing to 15,305, marking a 3.7% growth. This upward trend accelerated significantly in 2004, when the number of pending properties surged to 18,951, a substantial 23.8% increase. The momentum continued into 2005, reaching 23,489, another notable rise of 23.9%.

The growth streak extended into 2006 with pending properties climbing to 27,663, reflecting a 17.8% increase. However, 2007 witnessed a slight dip to 26,560, a decrease of 4.0%. This downturn was a precursor to a more significant decline during the global financial crisis, with pending properties plummeting to 21,461 in 2008, a steep 19.2% drop. The following year, 2009, saw a further decline to 18,443, representing a 14.1% decrease.

The market began to recover in 2010, with pending properties increasing to 19,466, a growth of 5.5%. This recovery continued steadily, albeit more modestly, into 2011 with 19,792 pending properties, reflecting a 1.7% increase. The year 2012 marked a robust resurgence with pending properties jumping to 24,262, a substantial 22.6% rise. This growth trend continued into 2013, reaching 29,134 pending properties, an increase of 20.1%.

Despite a slight dip in 2014, where pending properties slightly decreased to 28,996, a small drop of 0.5%, the market rebounded in 2015, growing to 30,270, an increase of 4.4%. The growth persisted in 2016 with 31,204 pending properties, a rise of 3.1%, and in 2017, the market saw a further increase to 32,004, up by 2.6%. This upward trend continued into 2018 with 33,088 pending properties, reflecting a 3.4% growth.

The year 2019 experienced a more significant increase, with pending properties reaching 34,977, a rise of 5.7%. This positive trend continued in 2020, with 36,090 pending properties, marking a 3.2% growth. The market saw a marginal increase in 2021, with 36,213 pending properties, a small rise of 0.3%.

However, 2022 marked a notable downturn, with pending properties dropping to 31,257, a significant 13.7% decrease. This decline continued into 2023, with pending properties falling to 28,177, a further 9.9% drop. The downward trend extended into 2024, with pending properties reducing to 24,828, reflecting an 11.9% decrease.

The sharp decline from the peak of 2021 to the current numbers in 2024 can be attributed to several key factors. The increase in interest rates, driven by the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, has had a direct impact on mortgage rates, making home loans more expensive. This has, in turn, contributed to a higher unemployment rate and affordability issues. Property prices have reached record highs, and coupled with the rise in mortgage rates, the principal, interest, taxes, and insurance (PITI) payments have surged dramatically. These affordability problems have made it difficult for many potential buyers to enter the market, resulting in a significant drop in pending properties. This combination of economic pressures has played a crucial role in the observed decline in pending real estate transactions.

Overall, the data reveals a dynamic and evolving real estate market in Austin, characterized by periods of robust growth, resilience during economic downturns, and significant fluctuations. This comprehensive analysis of cumulative pending properties from 2000 to 2024 provides a detailed understanding of the market trends and the factors influencing these changes.