Austin Housing Market Trends: Sales Data Reveals Sharp Decline in 2024

The real estate market in Austin, Texas, has experienced significant shifts over the past decade. As one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States, Austin's housing market has seen periods of rapid growth followed by sharp declines, particularly in the last few years. By analyzing the data from January 2014 through September 2024, it becomes clear that the number of home sales in Austin has fluctuated, with noticeable drops in the most recent years. This article dives into these trends, offering an in-depth look at how the market has evolved and what the current state of sales looks like.

In September 2024, the City of Austin recorded 629 home sales. This number represents a substantial decline from previous years. In fact, comparing September 2024 to September 2020, when 1,533 sales were recorded, shows a dramatic reduction of nearly 60%. Even when compared to September 2023, which saw 840 sales, this represents a decrease of 25.1%. The trend is not unique to September. Months like August and July have also seen reduced activity, with August 2024 recording 870 sales, down from 1,485 in August 2018.

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If we look further back, the sales numbers tell an even more complex story. Between 2014 and 2019, sales were relatively stable. For example, in September 2014, 1,146 homes were sold, and in 2019, that number was slightly higher at 1,234. However, by 2022, sales dropped to 948 in September, and the numbers have continued to decline since then. The COVID-19 pandemic brought significant changes to the housing market, as seen by the surge in sales in 2020 and 2021. July 2020 was particularly strong, with 1,815 sales recorded, but by July 2024, sales had fallen to just 900.

Year-over-year changes highlight the extent of this decline. In September 2024, sales were down 49% compared to September 2020 and 45.1% compared to September 2015. This downward trend has been consistent across most months, with only occasional upticks. For example, April 2024 showed a 13.6% increase from April 2023, but the overall trend has been a steady reduction in sales since the highs of 2020.

The seasonal nature of real estate activity is also evident in the data. Summer months, such as June, July, and August, tend to have more home sales compared to the winter months. For example, June 2024 saw 865 home sales, which is notably lower than June 2020's 1,505 sales, but still higher than the early months of the year, such as January 2024, when only 551 homes were sold. This pattern of higher summer activity followed by lower sales in the fall and winter is typical in the housing market, but the recent decline in sales is more than just seasonal. It reflects broader market conditions that have shifted over time.

The five-year and ten-year comparisons further emphasize how much the market has changed. Between 2020 and 2024, there has been a 43.7% decline in sales in June alone. Similarly, comparing the years 2015 to 2024 shows a 45.1% decrease in September sales. These declines point to a challenging real estate environment, where fewer homes are being sold despite the rapid growth Austin experienced earlier in the decade.

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Overall, the data shows that while Austin's real estate market was thriving in the mid-2010s, it has faced significant challenges in recent years. The rapid increase in sales during 2020 and 2021 has been followed by a period of contraction, with fewer homes being sold each month. This trend is likely influenced by a combination of factors, including rising home prices, higher interest rates, and changing buyer behavior. As Austin continues to grow, these trends will be important to watch for anyone looking to buy or sell property in the area​