Austin Housing Market Update: November 2024 Sees Decline in Inventory Levels

The Austin housing market has experienced notable fluctuations in inventory levels over the past two decades, with recent data indicating a significant decrease as of November 2024. Months of Inventory (MOI) is a key metric used to assess the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to sell all current listings at the prevailing sales pace, assuming no new properties enter the market. This measure helps categorize the market into seller's, neutral, or buyer's markets.

Historically, Austin's MOI has varied in response to economic conditions and market dynamics. Between 2005 and 2007, the MOI averaged around 4 to 5 months, indicating a balanced to seller's market. For instance, in January 2005, the MOI was 4.3 months, suggesting a seller's market. This trend continued through 2007, with January recording 3.7 months of inventory.

The global financial crisis of 2008 led to a sharp increase in MOI, reflecting a shift toward a buyer's market. By May 2009, the MOI peaked at 7 months, highlighting an oversupply relative to demand. This period was characterized by economic uncertainty and reduced buyer activity.

Recovery began in the early 2010s, with MOI gradually declining. By 2012, the MOI consistently fell below 5 months, returning the market to seller-favorable conditions. In January 2013, the MOI was at 2.6 months, indicating high demand and limited supply. This trend persisted through 2014 and 2015, with June 2015 recording an MOI of 4.3 months, maintaining a stable seller's market.

The period from 2020 to 2022 marked historic lows in MOI, driven by unprecedented demand, low interest rates, and constrained supply. In January 2021, the MOI dropped to an extraordinary 0.8 months, signaling one of the most competitive seller's markets in recent history. This trend continued throughout 2021, with MOI remaining below 2 months for most of the year.

In 2023, the market began to shift, with MOI increasing. By March 2023, the MOI rose to 3.7 months, indicating a transition toward more balanced conditions. As of November 2024, the market has experienced a notable decrease in inventory levels. The MOI has fallen to 4.7 months, down from 5.1 months in October 2024. This decline suggests a tightening market, with reduced supply relative to demand.

Seasonal trends also influence MOI fluctuations. Typically, MOI rises during the summer months, peaking in May or June, and declines in the winter. For example, in December 2015, the MOI was at 3.3 months, while by June 2016, it had increased to 4.6 months. These patterns are consistent throughout the data set, reflecting the cyclical nature of real estate activity.
Understanding MOI trends is essential for buyers, sellers, and industry professionals. This metric provides valuable insights into market competitiveness and aids in strategic decision-making. Whether navigating a low-inventory seller's market or preparing for a buyer's market with abundant supply, MOI remains a cornerstone for assessing market conditions.