Austin’s Housing Market Shows Signs of National Shift:
Freddie Mac House Price Index for July and August 2024

September 30, 2024 : The Freddie Mac House Price Index (FMHPI) is an important tool that tracks the trends in home prices across cities in the United States. For real estate professionals, homeowners, and potential buyers, understanding these trends is crucial in making informed decisions about the market. The latest data from July and August 2024 provides valuable insights into the shifts occurring in the housing market, particularly in Austin, Texas, as well as other major cities across the country.

In July 2024, the national housing market experienced a slight decrease in home prices. The Freddie Mac House Price Index for that month revealed an average month-over-month (MoM) decline of 0.1% across major cities. However, the year-over-year (YoY) price changes indicated that many markets were still growing compared to the previous year, with an average increase of 3.5%. Cities like Miami and Charlotte saw higher growth rates, driven by strong demand, while cities like Austin showed more modest or even negative trends.

By August 2024, the national housing market displayed more noticeable changes. The MoM increase across cities averaged 4.02%, suggesting that while there was some softening, many markets were still experiencing upward momentum. The YoY price increase also slowed slightly to an average of 3.5%, down from the 3.5% seen in July. This indicates that while prices are still higher than they were a year ago, the rate of growth is stabilizing. For Austin, this change was less positive. The city’s MoM increase was a modest 1.74% in August, showing a slower pace of growth compared to the national average. Year-over-year, Austin’s housing prices fell by 5.1% in August, compared to a 5.1% decline in July. This trend points to a market correction in the city, as home prices cool after years of rapid increases.

Austin, known for its strong housing market in recent years, has faced new challenges in 2024. The tech-driven city had seen a surge in demand for homes during the pandemic, as more people moved to the area for remote work opportunities and quality of life. However, in 2024, rising mortgage rates and concerns about affordability have dampened demand. Buyers are now more hesitant to enter the market, leading to a cooling in prices. For homeowners and sellers in Austin, this means adjusting expectations, while for buyers, it could represent an opportunity to enter a market that is stabilizing.

Other cities in the Freddie Mac House Price Index for July and August show varied results. In Miami, housing prices continue to rise, driven by a combination of migration from other states and strong local demand. Miami saw a YoY increase of 13.6% in August 2024, making it one of the strongest-performing markets in the country. By comparison, cities like San Francisco and Denver have experienced declines similar to Austin’s, with both cities showing year-over-year price decreases. San Francisco, in particular, has been grappling with affordability issues and a shift in the workforce that has reduced demand for high-priced homes in the city.

Looking at the data for the top 40 cities by population, several patterns emerge. Cities in the Southeastern United States, such as Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte, continue to experience price growth, though at a slightly slower pace than in previous years. These cities have been beneficiaries of a migration trend from more expensive regions, as people seek more affordable housing and warmer climates. On the other hand, cities in the Western United States, including Austin, San Francisco, and Denver, have seen prices decline as market conditions shift. In these cities, affordability and the end of pandemic-driven demand have contributed to the cooling market.

The Freddie Mac House Price Index also provides insight into the broader national trends for all 384 cities included in the data. While the overall MoM price changes indicate that many markets still see positive growth, YoY growth remains positive but slower than in previous years. The national average YoY price increase of 3.5% in August 2024 reflects a still-growing market, while Austin showed a YoY decrease of 5.1%. The national average MoM increase was 4.02%, with Austin’s increase standing at 1.74%. Additionally, Austin is down 15.5% from its peak in May 2022, while the national average drop from the peak across all cities is 1.4%.

One of the most important insights from the Freddie Mac House Price Index is the "Down from Peak" data. Last month, 76 out of the 384 cities tracked by the FMHPI had experienced a decline from their peak home values. However, in just one month, that number surged to 335 cities—a staggering 87.2% of the tracked markets. This dramatic increase suggests a widespread correction in home prices across the United States. Austin, which saw a significant drop of 15.5% from its peak, may very well be the "canary in the coal mine" for this broader market downturn. As one of the first major cities to experience a sharp price decline, Austin could be signaling what’s to come for other cities. With more markets now following suit, this data reflects a cooling housing market that could become a national trend in the coming months.

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Austin’s housing market, in particular, stands out in the latest Freddie Mac data. While the national average increase in home prices from January 2020 to August 2024 is 51.6%, Austin's growth in the same period is 40.8%. From January 2021, the national average increase is 35.6%, while Austin saw only an 18.3% rise. Since August 2022, the national market has grown by 7.8%, but Austin’s prices have dropped by 11.9% in that same period. This marks a significant shift from the city’s rapid price increases in previous years. The decline in Austin’s market can be attributed to a combination of rising mortgage rates, affordability concerns, and a reduction in out-of-state buyers who had previously fueled demand.

For buyers and sellers in Austin, understanding these trends is crucial. For buyers, the price declines may present an opportunity to enter the market at a more favorable time, particularly as inventory levels rise and competition decreases. Sellers, on the other hand, may need to adjust pricing expectations as the market corrects itself. Real estate professionals in Austin should keep a close eye on these trends, as the market continues to shift in response to broader economic factors.

In conclusion, the Freddie Mac House Price Index for July and August 2024 highlights the varied performance of housing markets across the United States. While some cities continue to see price growth, others, like Austin, are undergoing a market correction. For those in the Austin real estate market, understanding these data points and adjusting strategies accordingly will be key to navigating the changes in the months ahead.